Afternoon Soybeans: Soybeans steady their slide.
The soybean market bounced back to finish the week on a positive note. While corn and wheat had a very dramatic, or traumatic, trade this week the soy complex was more of a mixed and choppy affair. For the week, beans lost -6 ½ cents, meal -1/8, oil -.44, canola +.2 and palm oil +2.
Export activity has picked up for soybeans thanks to rising premiums in the southern hemisphere leaving US supply as the cheapest in the world. Thanks to the tariff situation, China continues to buy Brazilian supply with reports of another 25-30 cargoes trading this week following a similar number last week. Brazil soybean basis surged another 15 cents today to +145. Meanwhile, the USDA flashed a sale of 297 tmt of new crop beans sold to unknown. The export activity and the surprisingly big NOPA July crush number were the keys to today's buying.
Another supportive feature are the crop analyst estimates floating around the wires. DTN digital yield tour using satellite analysis projects a national corn yield of 163.2 bpa and bean yield of 44.2 bpa while another private crop analyzer with an extended track record put the national corn yield at 159.1 bpa and beans at 46.8 bpa. The USDA is currently using a 169.5 bpa and 48.5 bpa. Next week's Pro Farmer crop tour will be watched closely if they confirm this lower yield bias - they have a little more credibility with the trade.
Weather is somewhat of a mixed bag. There is rain in the 5-day forecast that will be beneficial for crops but coverage is not complete the 6-10 day outlook is drier than recent runs too. August is key for soybean yield potential and the for crops poorly developed crops in the central to eastern belt, the forecast is less than ideal.
The COT report this afternoon showed managed money fund traders through Tuesday -34.9k corn (net long 44.5k), -2.1k srw (net long 4k), -12.5k hrw (net short -33.2k), +6.3k beans (net short -66.4k), +2.6k meal (net short -36.4k) and +47.4k (net long 10.3k).
CIF bids at the Gulf up 1 to +40. Interior processor bids steady to some weaker with Decatur, IL off 3 to +15. Brazilian fob up 15 to +145. Argy fob up 3 to +75.
In the spreads, the soybean bull spreads were mixed. Oil share was weaker to 32.9%. Board crush margins 2 lower to $1.02/bushel.
Soybean option ATM volatility -mixed.