Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market was firm, finishing 3-4 cents higher by the AM break. Stimulating gains was no doubt the weekly USDA Crop Progress report, where corn ratings posted a surprisingly large....

Corn Morning Update & Commentary:  Overnight, the corn market was firm, finishing 3-4 cents higher by the AM break.  Stimulating gains was no doubt the weekly USDA Crop Progress report, where corn ratings posted a surprisingly large wk/wk decline.  56% of U.S. corn is rated "Good-Excellent", which was a 3% decline from the prior week, and compares unfavorably to year ago ratings of 77% G-E.  The Eastern Belt took the brunt of the damage, which was unsurprising - Ohio ratings were off 14%, Indiana down 7%, and Michigan fell 6% G-E.  Note, it is still very early - difficult to rate corn seedlings that are half-an-inch high - and we see this as an extension of the "planting delay" issues that have played out over the course of the past month.  The market has already rallied more than a dollar in response.  The final planting report found 96% of the corn planted, with the bulk in the East and South Dakota.  89% of the crop was emerged at the end of June.  Short-run conditions generally appear favorable; the next five days bring scattered showers (and light accumulations) for most of the Midwest, excepting Wisconsin, which could get up to two inches over the period.  Temps warm up to 80's and 90's middle/end week, which will add some GDD/GDU's.  Rains are expected to return in two weeks after some mild ridging?  It will be a busy week ahead; "Position Day" for July delivery Thursday, followed by two major USDA reports (quarterly stocks and acres), as well as end of month/quarter fund positioning.

Though the early-going was less than confident, corn started the week off on the right foot, finishing four cents higher Monday. The bull will likely try to build on those gains after tonight's Crop Progress report arrived better-than-expected. Managed Money traders were viewed net buyers of 10,000 corn in an overall quiet session of trade. We would estimate they are heading into tonight net long about 80,000 combined futures and options. The mid-day grain inspections report was pedestrian, showing 617,740 metric tons in corn shipments for the week ended 6/20. That was down slightly from the prior week, and paled in comparison to the 1.54 mmt shipped out the prior year week. To no surprise, 18/19 corn shipments of 41.5 mmt are falling further behind 17/18's back-end loaded pace of 44.2 mmt. It wasn't all bad news, though; a cargo of corn was shipped out of the Gulf to Mainland China? There are some open sales on the books to China, so it was likely not a misprint. Traders continue to punish the hog market, which finished over $3 lower for a second consecutive day. Ethanol and Dairy were slightly better today; margins slightly negative in the former and slightly positive in the latter. AgRural pegged Brazil's second crop corn harvest at 19% harvested, which compares to 7% average. Export line-ups there said to be quite large, which should not surprise given how much business they have picked up over the past several months!


QT News - Top News
-- Grain traders Tuesday say 65,000 mt of Brazil origin Corn was bought by Taiwan's MFIG. They reportedly paid $1.0108 over CBOT corn futures. The grain is for shipment between Oct 10 to Oct 29.
-- South African Grain Info Service Tuesday pegged 2018/19 total Corn exports at 2.284 mln mt that compares to the prior season's 2.482 mln mt; 19/20 corn exports through the end of May were 122,181 mt.
-- South African Grain Info Service Tuesday pegged 2018/19 total Corn ending stocks at 2.663 mln mt down from last season's 3.689 mln mt; 19/20 opening corn stocks were estimated at 3.063 mln mt.
-- AgRural analysts estimate Brazil second season Corn harvest at 19% complete up from last week's 9% pace. In the year ago week the harvest at only 5% complete, and the long term average for this point in the season is 7%. The top states for corn harvest were Mato Grosso and Parana, both at 27% finished.
-- Weekly EU data Monday showed +262,000 mt of Corn imports in the latest reporting period ending June 23, brings the 18/19 MY to date total 23.251 mln mt. For comparison the 17/18 MY imports were 17.344 mln mt.
-- Weekly EU data Monday showed +29,000 mt Barley exports in the latest reporting period ending June 23, brings the 18/19 MY to date total 4.305 mln mt. For comparison the 17/18 MY exports were 5.618 mln mt.

Weekly USDA Progress/Conditions Recap
-- USDA Monday weekly crop progress report showed Corn planted progress at 96% complete compared to last week's 92% and year ago week 100%
-- USDA Monday weekly crop progress report showed Corn emerged progress at 89% complete compared to last week's 79% and year ago week 100%
-- USDA Monday weekly crop conditions report showed Corn 56% good to excellent, 32% fair, 12% poor to very poor versus last week's 59% good to excellent, 31% fair, 10% poor to very poor

Stats Canada Estimates
-- Ahead of Wednesday's Stats Canada 2019 planting estimate report, analysts are forecasting Barley acres at 7.4 mln, that compares to the 7.15 mln acres in the April report and 2018 crop at 6.49 mln acres.
-- Ahead of Wednesday's Stats Canada 2019 planting estimate report, analysts are forecasting Corn acres at 3.6 mln, that compares to the 3.79 mln acres in the April report and 2018 crop at 3.62 mln acres.

USDA Acres and Quarterly Stockpile Estimates
-- Analysts ahead of this Friday's USDA acreage report analysts are expecting US Corn planted acres at 87.0 mln, that compares to the USDA March projection at 92.8 mln acres. The data will be released Friday, June 28 at 11:00 am CDT.
-- Analysts are projecting US quarterly grain stocks report this Friday to show US corn stocks as of June 1 at 5.34 bln bushels, on the year ago date stockpiles were 5.305 bln bu. The data will be released at 11:00 am CDT, Friday June 28th.


PENDING TENDERS
-- Pending Tender: Grain traders Monday say 30,000 mt of US origin Corn is sought in a tender by Taiwan Sugar Corp. The offer deadline is June 26th, while the grain is for shipment between August 27 to Sept 25th depending on departure port.

-- Euronext Paris August corn futures on Tuesday are trading +0.50 euro higher at 178.25 euros/mt
-- Dalian Sept corn futures fell -3 yuan Tuesday finishing at 1,949 yuan/mt
-- Outside markets. Crude Oil off -22c @ $57.69; Gold up +$14.00 @ $1432.20; Silver up +4.4c @ $15.505; US $ index up +4.8c @ $95.53


QT News Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt
12 pro 11 pro
Jun +75/?? N +60/72 N +85/95 N +167/173 N +127/135 N 450/???
Jly +48/55 N +50/55 N +75/85 N +165/173 N +116/126 N 435/450
Aug +41/47 Q +42/46 U +70/77 U +152/160 U +113/120 U 400/410

Hi-pro meal Soy oil
Chicago -30 N +11 N +20 N
Toledo -20 N +26 N +25 N
Dec ILL -15 N +20 N -14 N -00 N

KJ