Afternoon Soybeans: USDA reminder that its not pretty out there.
The soybean market bounced back for a higher start to the week but for the moment, has developed a choppy near-term range trade. A warmer temperature outlook with 'less rain' in the forecast should be beneficial for crop development which is badly needed.
Beans were only 71% emerged compared to 55% last week and 94% this time last year. Soybean planting is 85% complete vs. 77% last week and 100% this time last year - this would suggest there are still 12.7 million bean acres left to plant led by IL (2.2), IN 1.4), MO (1.8) and OH 1.7). Many of those acres will not be planted. Similar to corn in recent weeks, many farmers are done planting beans (unable) and will opt for prevent plant. The US corn crop condition fell from 59% gte last week to 56% while beans debuted at 56% gte - not pretty out there. Corn is 89% emerged compared to 79% a week ago and 100% this time last year. Besides the prevent plant and failed acres this year, we have a major problem with crop development way behind normal - we just don't know how major the problem will be at this point.
Weekly grain inspections for export beans were slightly better at 682 tmt vs. 650 expected and similar to the 680 tmt executed last week. Year to date inspections stand at 36.331 mmt compared to 48.824 mmt this time last year. This represents a shortfall of 459 million bushels to last year's pace where the USDA total year exports are projected to fall short by 429 million bushels. US beans are competitive in the world (to non-tariffed destinations) which is the big difference from corn and wheat values which are not. China continues to take shipment of US beans already purchased with 8 cargoes (1 out of the S Atlantic, 5 out of the Gulf and 2 off the PNW) all headed to China. China also took a cargo of corn out of the Gulf and 2 sorghum cargoes.
Friday is going to be a busy/chaotic day.
• We have first notice on July futures, there are 1,030 corn receipts registered for delivery, 9 SRW, 5 HRW, 584 beans, 0 meal and 1,272 oil. We are not anticipating big corn, wheat or bean deliveries.
• It is also the end of the quarter which can mean that money flow and allocations will be an influence our trade.
• We will have the quarterly stocks and acreage reports although the acreage side of that will be rightly questioned and less meaningful than normal. There is a rumor making the rounds that the USDA is 'considering' issuing the yet to be planted acres by crop AND state in the June 28 report. I confirmed with the USDA this afternoon that this will not be the case. They simply do not ask the questions on the survey that would give them this data. The FSA in mid-Aug will publish the prevent plant and failed acreage as normal and the USDA will apply that data to the October crop report.
• The quarterly stocks numbers will highlight the burdensome old crop supply situation with the story in corn and beans residing strictly in the new crop US production threat at this point.
• The G-20 summit is also taking place in Japan and President Trump and Xi will meet to discuss and hopefully revive trade negotiations.
In the spreads, the soybean bull spreads were firmer. Oil share weaker to 30.8%. Board crush margins 3 lower to $1.02/bushel.
Spot basis: CIF bids at the Gulf up 2 to +55. Interior processor bids steady/firm. Brazilian fob offers +105. Argy fob offers +45.