Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market was mostly firmer, overcoming a little shakiness on Sunday night's open to finish 4-5 cents higher by the AM break. Busy weak ahead, headlined by the USDA Acreage....
Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Overnight, the corn market was mostly firmer, overcoming a little shakiness on Sunday night's open to finish 4-5 cents higher by the AM break. Busy weak ahead, headlined by the USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports Friday. In addition, we also have First Notice Day for July futures, and the long-awaited Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 into the weekend. Speaking of July, options expired Friday, wiping out a massive amount of puts and calls, along with ~30k July futures. The more immediate focus of the markets today will be the USDA Crop Progress report after the close. Weekend weather featured big rains along the MO/IA border, but close to half the Midwest was completely dry, which was welcome. The next five days bring scattered showers (and light accumulations) for most of the Midwest, excepting Wisconsin, which could get up to two inches over the period. Condition ratings should be steady/better at levels that are well below average for the time of year. For all intents and purposes, planting is over, but the USDA will give us one more look. Could be close to 100%, but there are plenty of question marks as to just what that counts - most figure it excludes Prevent Plant, inflating the percent complete? Growing weather ahead likely leans a little bearish; rains return in week two after a short-run dryer stretch, which is important? Temps warm up to 80's and 90's middle/end week, which will add some GDD/GDU's.
The corn market continued its recent choppier change in trend, finishing Friday with 6-7 cent losses. No doubt July options expiration contributed to the uncertain tenor of the day. Cash trade was steady in the West, but firm in the East, which was already paying fairly exorbitant prices for corn. CFTC Commitment of Traders data after the close was interesting, finding less fund buying in corn than expected. According to the supplemental report, large non-commercial (aka "fund") traders were viewed net buyers of 32,575 corn for the week ended 6/18. This was split one-third between "new longs" and two-thirds short-covering. The real gyrations occurred on the commercial side, who added 33k new longs and 88k+ new shorts. Major transfer of ownership on the week (and for several weeks) from the spec community to the commercial? Index funds also on the buy side, likely reflecting small trader ETF type buying. When including recent estimates, we believe the funds are heading into the weekend net long about 70,000 combined corn futures and options. Cattle on Feed report after the close found a few more animals "on feed" than expected, which will likely be read neutral-to-bearish cattle, but implies more feed demand, for our purposes. Ethanol crush spreads gained a little ground to end the week, though plants having to pay up for corn are still losing a fair amount of money.
QT News - Top News
-- Saudi Arabia Monday reported 900,000 mt of optional origin feed Barley was purchased in their latest tender. The average price was $193.64/mt, prices ranged from low of $186.99/mt cif up to $205.75/mt cif. Traders believe Black Sea origin will be selected.
-- Chinese customs data released Sunday shows May 2019 corn imports totaled 750,000 mt off -1.1% from the year ago month, that brings the Jan-May total imports to 2.39 mln mt up +41.5% from the 2018 period.
-- Chinese customs data released Sunday shows May 2019 barley imports totaled 310,000 mt off -59.4% from the year ago month, that brings the Jan-May total imports to 2.85 mln mt off -25.1% from the 2018 period.
-- Chinese customs data released Sunday shows May 2019 pork imports totaled 187,459 mt up +62.6% from the year ago month, that brings the Jan-May total imports to 658,236 mt up +19.8% from the 2018 period.
-- India weather bureau officials say monsoon rains have covered nearly half the country and conditions are setting up so that it will slide into central and western India. The annual rains are helping to push farmers with their planting of summer crops.
-- Report from Argentina government released Friday shows they expect 18/19 Soybean production at 55.6 mln mt off -300,000 mt from the prior outlook. The report increased the 2018/19 corn production figure to 57.0 mln mt up +1.0 mln mt over the previous estimate.
-- Friday's USDA Cattle On Feed June 1: 102%; estimate 101%; prior month 102%
-- Friday's USDA Cattle Placements during May: 97%; estimate 96%; prior month 109%
-- Friday's USDA Cattle Marketings during May: 101%; estimate 101%; prior month 107%
-- Friday's USDA Cold Storage May 31: Pork Bellies: 64.122 mln lbs
-- Friday's USDA Cold Storage May 31: TTL Pork Stocks: 628.660 mln lbs
-- Friday's USDA Cold Storage May 31: TTL Beef Stocks: 403.552 mln lbs
-- Friday's USDA Cold Storage May 31: TTL Chicken Stocks: 834.297 mln lbs
Stats Canada Estimates
-- Ahead of Wednesday's Stats Canada 2019 planting estimate report, analysts are forecasting Barley acres at 7.4 mln, that compares to the 7.15 mln acres in the April report and 2018 crop at 6.49 mln acres.
-- Ahead of Wednesday's Stats Canada 2019 planting estimate report, analysts are forecasting Corn acres at 3.6 mln, that compares to the 3.79 mln acres in the April report and 2018 crop at 3.62 mln acres.
USDA Acres and Quarterly Stockpile Estimates
-- Analysts ahead of this Friday's USDA acreage report analysts are expecting US Corn planted acres at 87.0 mln, that compares to the USDA March projection at 92.8 mln acres. The data will be released Friday, June 28 at 11:00 am CDT.
-- Analysts are projecting US quarterly grain stocks report this Friday to show US corn stocks as of June 1 at 5.34 bln bushels, on the year ago date stockpiles were 5.305 bln bu. The data will be released at 11:00 am CDT, Friday June 28th.
-- Pending Tender: Grain traders Monday say 30,000 mt of US origin Corn is sought in a tender by Taiwan Sugar Corp. The offer deadline is June 26th, while the grain is for shipment between August 27 to Sept 25th depending on departure port.
-- Euronext Paris August corn futures on Monday are trading +1.50 euros higher at 177.25 euros/mt
-- Dalian Sept corn futures on Monday traded +3 yuan higher finishing at 1,952 yuan/mt
-- Outside markets. Crude Oil up +25c @ $57.67; Gold up +$13.10 @ $1413.20; Silver up +8.5c @ $15.375; US $ index off -19.8c @ 95.52
QT News Cash Markets
Bean Barge Corn Barge SRW Barge HRW Track Ill Riv Frt
12 pro 11 pro
Jun +55/75 N +60/72 N +85/95 N +167/173 N +126/135 N 450/???
Jly +46/55 N +50/55 N +75/85 N +165/173 N +116/126 N 435/450
Aug +40/47 Q +43/46 U +70/77 U +152/160 U +113/120 U 400/410
Hi-pro meal Soy oil
Chicago -30 N +11 N +20 N
Toledo -20 N +26 N +25 N
Dec ILL -15 N +20 N -14 N -00 N