Afternoon Soybeans: Soybean oil was the feature trade of the day in flat price and the oil share.
The soybean market bounced back with a slightly higher settlement in what has been a rough, holiday-shortened week with the market down 14 cents overall. The grains will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday and will re-open Sunday evening, the COT reports will still be published on their normal schedule tomorrow as will crop progress on Monday.
The feature trade today was bean oil rallying back to negate yesterday's outside day lower in flat price and gaining on meal to take the oil share spread into a new high for its recovery. The weekly chart in meal closed with a outside week lower but has significant underlying support against $300. Rapeseed broke down into new contract lows and if you don't snap back look out because this is a significant technical trade. We are left with a fourth downside PriceCount objective to aim for on July rapeseed which projects a run to the $418 area as the next objective. 418. With the ban on Canadian rapeseed by China, that may not be as far-fetched as it sounds? Keep in mind, new crop canola acreage is expected to be sharply lower in response to the ongoing trade dispute and ban.
In its review of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, the US International Trade Commission says the deal would raise US real GDP by .35%, increase US employment by 176k jobs. They say the agreement would increase US exports to Canada by $19.1 billion and to Mexico by 14.2 billion. They estimate the agreement would increase dairy access to Canada and boost US dairy output by $226.8 million including $314.5 million in exports to Canada and Mexico.
The US won a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling against China's use of tariff-rate quotas for rice, wheat and corn, which it successfully argued limited market access for U.S. grain exports. The case, originally lodged by the Obama administration in late 2016, marked the second U.S. victory in as many months.
Weekly export sales of old crop soybean sales totaled just 382 tmt, this was still up 41% from last week, but down 46% from the prior 4-week average. Outstanding soybean sales on the books total 12.928 mmt compared to 11.635 mmt this time last year while shipments to date stand at just 31.364 mmt compared to 42.348 mmt this time last year. Accumulated exports are running 404 million bushels behind last year's pace while the USDA is currently projecting year over year exports to fall by 259 million bushels.
Elsewhere in the news, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argy soybean harvest at 34.1% complete with an avg. yield at 4.02 mt/hectare with final production estimate unchanged at 55.0 mmt.
5 Day Precip Forecast - some drying down opportunity in the Western Belt and N Plains, 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks warm and wet:
In the spreads:
• Board crush margins $1.03/bushel.
• Oil share 32.2%.
• The new crop bean/corn ratio 2.37%.
Soybean CIF bids at the Gulf steady +24 for spot. Interior processor bids steady to firmer, Lafayette to bid up a nickel to -25k. Brazilian fob offers firmer K up 2 to +35, M +35. Argy fob offers steady M -30.
Soybean option volatility: K up .5 to 10% - May goes off the board in 8 days, N up .5 to 12.5%, Q up .5 to 15.0%, U up .5 to 15.5% and X up .5 to 16.0%.