Corn Morning Update & Commentary: US and Japan meeting today?
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, corn futures bounced back from a two day sell-off, finishing three cents higher by the biscuit break. It is another quiet news day within a quiet news week, which is not unusual for the time of year – the calm before the weather market storm! We do not see too much change on the weather front early; the U.S. weather outlook is warm/wet, and Brazil’s 2H April outlook features million dollar rains for many areas. The latter will be critical as the country’s dry season will begin shortly thereafter. The report-du-jour is the weekly EIA. We suspect seasonal maintenance will continue to take its toll on ethanol production, likely declining another ~2% wk/wk. Blender demand should bounce back, but exports will likely not repeat the prior week’s strong showing. We still think ethanol stocks should draw down, and likely by a healthy amount; call it down 2-3% wk/wk. Ethanol futures have ‘hung in there’ this week amid the old crop corn correction, which we think has improved spot industry margins from near-breakeven to roughly 5 c/gal profitable, including all costs. Outside markets are mixed; stocks are back in the tank on the latest tariff moves (this time, semiconductors?), but energy is firm and the US Dollar easier.<br> <br>Corn futures stuck to the prior day’s playbook; old crop further corrected its prior overbought stance Tuesday, finishing 3-4 cents lower, while new crop was stable (gaining 1-2 cents). We think funds are net long roughly 90,000 delta-adjusted corn. Cash trade continued to ease after the latest round of farm selling tamped down values. End user markets were steady/firm. There was another 8 AM sale for corn Tuesday (none Wed), making it two days in a row following a long drought; 110,000 metric tons of corn booked to Portugal. Note that we have a three day weekend coming up; markets will be closed Friday. Monthly Cattle on Feed is due Thursday afternoon. The U.S. is meeting with Japan today; a trade deal here could have implications for corn, as Japan is traditionally the second largest U.S. corn customer.<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>-- Grain trade sources Wednesday reported Jordan was thought to have made no purchase at their 120,000 mt Barley tender today. They also noted another tender is expected to announced shortly, with an offer deadline of April 23rd.<br> <br>-- Trade sources Wednesday reported Iran is seeking 120,000 mt of feed Corn in a tender to close on April 21st. The grain is for shipment in June and/or July. Sources accepted include Brazil, Europe, Ukraine, Turkey or Russia.<br> <br>-- Trade sources Wednesday reported Iran is seeking 120,000 mt of feed Barley in a tender to close on April 21st. The grain is for shipment in June and/or July. Sources accepted include Europe, Ukraine, Turkey or Russia.<br> <br>-- France AgriMer Wednesday forecast 24/25 Corn ending stocks at 3.39 mln mt (last month 3.08 mln mt)<br> <br>-- France AgriMer Wednesday forecast 24/25 Barley ending stocks at 1.29 mln mt (last month 1.33 mln mt)<br> <br>-- As of April 13, accumulated 24/25 MY EU Corn imports totaled 16.5 mln mt (last report 16.2 mln mt), that compares to the year earlier week's 14.6 mln mt<br> <br>-- As of April 13, accumulated 24/25 MY EU Barley exports totaled 4.1 mln mt (last report 3.9 mln mt), that compares to the year earlier week's 5.0 mln mt<br> <br> <br> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>NA<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris June corn futures on Wednesday are trading +1.00 euro higher at 205.50 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian July corn futures on Wednesday traded +7 yuan higher ending at 2,307 yuan/mt</span></div><br><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">KJ</span></div>