Afternoon Soybeans: Bean oil helped underpin soybeans and led a snap back in board crush.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market corrected for a second day after trading out to a new 6-week high yesterday; meanwhile the bull spreads corrected lower for a third day. Old crop beans ended the day trading 3-6 cents lower while the new crop benefited from the spread liquidation and gained a penny. Domestic bean basis was steady to firmer. Beans made a midday rally effort and nearly climbed back to unchanged at 10 cents off the low, but the NOPA March crush came up 3 mb short of expectations and the futures settled back again. Strength in bean oil where the NOPA stocks was friendly, helped to underpin beans from the product side into the close. There were plenty of tariff related headlines around, which is the new normal, but none were of the market moving variety. The Trump admin has shifted gears to focus on negotiations with cooperating trade partners and the onshoring of investment and manufacturing while China is rightly singled out with the highest tariffs but so far have been unwilling to come to the table.<br> <br>In today’s tariff related news:<br><ul><li>Little progress has been made in talks with the EU. </li><li>Honda is considering moving manufacturing plants into the US from Mexico and Canada. </li><li>Canadian Prime Minister Carney said his government will allow automakers to import US-manufactured cars and trucks without tariffs, as long as the companies keep making vehicles in Canada.</li><li>Trump plans to impose 21% tariffs on most tomatoes from Mexico. </li><li>Bessent is focusing on securing trade deals with the U.K., Australia, South Korea, India, & Japan and has initiated contact with these nations’ officials. </li><li>Hassett noted that over 10 countries have presented “amazing” trade proposals. </li><li>White House says we have more than 15 trade deal proposals that are actively being considered and they believe they’ll announce some very soon.</li><li>White House says Trump is open to deal with China but we don’t have to make a deal with them. The ball is in China’s court.</li><li>Relief is being considered for farmers.</li><li>China is escalating its non-tariff barriers by stopping delivery of Boeing planes/parts and cutting off access to rare earth minerals to everybody.</li></ul> <br>In the product trade, bean oil started the day lower but finished higher following the smaller than expected NOPA stocks number. While export demand has offset the loss of biodiesel demand, that demand also begin to fade. Palm oil has fallen to a $100/mt discount to soybean oil on the board after trading at over $100/mt premium recently – the discount should encourage more palm oil demand in certain markets at the expense of soybean oil. Now, if we could get some policy guidance on biofuels, we could turn on our domestic use again as bean oil demand continues to shift around. There was additional support for bean oil from the rapeseed and canola markets on analysts projecting an 8% reduction in Ukraine’s rapeseed crop from a year ago due to reduced acreage and a spring freeze. Meal traded weaker and the oil share spread ripped to an 11-day high at 44.6%. Board crush margins responded to the oil strength and nearby soy weakness with the crush recoverying 10 cents to $1.32/bushel. <br> <br>NOPA’s March crush came in at 194.55 mb, below the average trade estimate of 197.6 mb. The crush was up from February’s 177.8 mb and but short of last March’s 196.4 mb. The average daily rate of crush in March was a 6-month low at 6.28 mb/day compared to 6.35 mb/day in February. Marketing year to date, the total crush stands at 1.350 bb compared to the 1.308 bb pace from a year ago.<br> <br>Oil stocks at the end of March were 1.498 bln lbs, well below the average trade estimate of 1.620 bln lbs. Inventories were down slightly from 1.503 bln lbs at the end of February and remained below last March’s inventory of 1.851 bln lbs. Oil yields were a record 12.06 lbs up from 11.92 lbs in March.<br> <br>Elsewhere in the news, Brazil soy exports in April are projected to reach 14.5 mmt vs. 13.3 mmt seen in previous week, according to Anec. Meal exports 2.4 mmt vs. 2.3 mmt. <br> <br>Soybean planting progress at 2% complete compared to last week's NA% and year ago week 3%.<br> <br>Declining vegetable oil prices are clearing the way for Brazil to increase its mandatory biodiesel blend into diesel to 15%, up from 14%, according to Abiove.<br> <br>French Farms Ministry on Tuesday updated their 2025 Rapeseed harvest area to 1.29 million hectares from the previous forecast at 1.27 mln ha.<br> <br>APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said Ukraine rapeseed could be hit by bad weather and the 2025 crop could be at its lowest level in three years. "Rapeseed production may decline ... due to the reduction of the winter crop area due to moisture deficit in autumn 2024 and due to poor overwintering of crops in a number of major producing regions," the consultancy said. It said on Monday that 2025 rapeseed harvest could decrease by 8% to 3.39 million metric tons against 3.70 million tons in 2024 and 4.72 million tons in 2023. In early April, the minimum temperature in the air and on the soil surface dropped to minus 11 degrees Celsius (12.2 degrees Fahrenheit) for 2 to 8 days, and snow and weak soil warming suspended field work and sowing of early spring grains.<br> <br>Intertek estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports over the April 1-15 period at 491,984 mt, up +17.0% over their first half March export estimate.<br> <br>ADM statement released Monday acknowledged it is shuttering its Chinese domestic trading operations as part of its worldwide cost cutting efforts. The company expects the operations in Shanghai to be fully wound down by this fall.<br> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf off 1 to +83 <br>St. Louis, MO up 2 to +22k<br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -5k<br>Mankato, MN steady -15k<br>Decatur, IL steady +12k<br>Decatur, IN steady +25k <br>Columbus, OH steady opt price k </div>