Afternoon Corn: All eyes on the White House this afternoon
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Afternoon Corn: <br id=\"isPasted\"> <br>Corn futures encountered minor liquidation pressure ahead of “Liberation Day festivities”. Old crop positions finished 3-4 cents lower, while new crop closed either side of unchanged. Funds are believed net long roughly 80,000 delta-adjusted corn after aggressively paring back length over the past month. Cash trade was quietly mixed.<br> <br>All eyes will be on the White House later this afternoon, as they are due to announce long awaited guidance on tariff/trade policy. There are signs of some ‘give’ among trading counterparties, which cheered up financial markets intraday? Canada, Israel, and Vietnam, were all rumored to have offered concessions ahead of the announcements? Come what may, we would expect the results to be the focus of grain trade tonight, and perhaps for the coming week as countries that get tariffed will show their own cards? <br> <br>The weekly EIA held mixed feature yet again for the ethanol market, in somewhat confusing fashion. Weekly ethanol production unexpectedly upticked +1% wk/wk; the resulting 1.063 mil bbl/day rate would utilize 5.6 billion bushels of corn if averaged over a marketing year. Blender demand was better than expected, particularly considering poor gasoline offtake for the week, jumping more than +2% wk/wk. Reported ethanol exports were poor, falling to a five month low of 62k bbl/day versus 164k last week. Despite the rather hefty export miss, ethanol stocks still managed to draw significantly, falling -2.7% to 26.6 million barrels (1.12 billion gallons). Try circling that square? Ethanol futures were firm going into the report and firm coming out of it, once again improving industry margins. We think an average Midwest ethanol plant can earn 15 c/gal profits today, net of all costs. Rumors of the Canadian tariff reprieve may be helping here, as well as movement on the policy front, which has boosted RIN credits.<br> <br>Along with the tariff guidance, weekly export sales will be due out in the morning. We do not expect much excitement; new corn sales will likely come in just under 1 million metric tons? It has been a quiet news week for exports, and 8 AM sales announcements have been difficult to come by. This week’s world tender activity is restricted mostly to countries that exclude U.S. origin, chiefly Algeria and Iran.<br> <br>Elsewhere, end-user markets did not hold much feature. Weekly USDA reporting found broiler egg sets and chicks placed both +1% higher on a yr/yr basis. Both metrics have been trending steady to gently better over the past month. We struggle to call weather a decisively bearish or bullish influence today. Brazil safrinha could use more rain (as is often the case in April). Some models suggest a less-than-ideal dry April there? 6-10 & 8-14 day U.S. maps lean cool and dry after a wet week.<br> <br>In the options, volatility held roughly steady. May $5 Calls were very active today, trading 7,500 times at just under one cent at multiple times of the day. Calendar spreads were weaker again. Inter-market spreads were unremarkably mixed. Looking at the charts, early month lows ($4.42 CK) continue to offer meaningful support for corn futures. We see minor resistance starting at $4.60 CK (which we closed back below today), then more difficult levels every dime higher. CZ appears to have confirmed good range support at $4.40 with a successful defense of that level. We see resistance for the moment at $4.50 CZ; closing above $4.60 would endanger a short-term downtrend that has developed. Corn’s RSI is neither overbought or oversold, hanging out in the mid 40’s. <br> <br>KJ </span></div></div>