Afternoon Soybeans: Quiet trade ahead of the tariff plan reveal.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market settled back with a quietly lower trade in advance of this afternoon’s highly anticipated tariff announcement by President Trump. May beans closed nearly a nickel lower while the new crop November contract slipped by 2 cents. The bull spreads were soft as most of the sell pressure was focused on the front end of the curve. The new crop bean to corn ratio held steady at 2.31%. The cash markets are quiet and domestic basis is mixed – farmer sales were muted as most are busy in the field or preparing to be.<br> <br>Today is ‘Liberation Day’ where we’ll learn more about the big reciprocal tariff reveal that is scheduled to be announced at 3 pm central time. The new reciprocal duties are due to take effect immediately after President Trump announces them, while a separate 25% global tariff on auto imports will take effect tomorrow. We do not know how this will play out. Some countries have already shown an inclination to work with us to reduce the trade deficits. Israel for example, straight cancelled its pre-existing tariffs on US imports yesterday to avoid the reciprocal. Canada is now suggesting they too will drop their pre-existing tariffs if the US agrees to do the same. Mexico says they will not impose tit for tat tariffs. Meanwhile others will likely dig their heals in and fight what ultimately will be a losing trade battle. We hope most will choose the former approach but the administration is prepared for either tactic including prepared US farmer bailouts.<br> <br>The US weather forecast is excessively wet and suggests it will be a while before planting resumes or gets started across the lower to eastern corn belt. Some replanting of early beans may be necessary in areas where a foot of rain may accumulate and inundate the ground over the coming week; cool temps will slow down the rate of drying thereafter. <br><br>In the product trade, bean oil has re-awakened on the renewed biofuel mandate headlines where it appears progress is being made in the direction of a favorable outcome although nothing is set in stone. The proposed biofuel blending mandate is 5.5 to 5.75 billion gallons, up significantly from 3.35 billion gallons. Bean oil has rallied from 43 cent to nearly 49 cents over the past week. Managed fund money was net short almost 45k contracts of bean oil as of 3/25 – but that position is estimated to have been dramatically reduced. The USDA reported an 8 am export sale of 135 tmt of meal to the Philippines. On the other side of the oil share spreading, meal flat price broke down and established a new contract low. The nearby oil share spread is trading into new contract highs. Spot board crush margins are at a six-week high of $1.36/bushel. <br> <br>For tomorrow’s USDA weekly export sales report the range of trade estimates on combined old/new crop corn sales is .800-1.7 mmt, wheat (100)-500 tmt, beans 250-850 tmt, meal 100-300 tmt, and oil 5-40 tmt. <br> <br>Elsewhere in the news, Starting on April 1, the minimum biodiesel blend required to qualify for a state tax exemption for biodiesel blends in the state of IL increased from B14 to B17 — meaning 17% of every qualifying diesel gallon must come from biodiesel, predominantly made from Illinois grown soybeans. Full B20 implementation is the goal but no date has been announced.<br> <br>India total edible oil imports in March were 968,000 mt up +9.3% from February's pace. Palm oil and soyoil import gains, up +13.2% and 24% respectively, helped buoy the March imports, but were tempered by -15.5% fall in sunflower oil imports.<br> <br>The USDA released its census crush report showing February crush totaled 189.0 mb which was close to expectations. The average daily rate of crush in February was 6.75 mb/day down from 6.85 mb/day in January and a five-month low. Marketing year to date, halfway in, total crush is 1.231 bb vs. 1.170 bb at this time last year. The USDA is forecasting a 125 mb year over year increase in crush. Oil stocks were 1.923 bln lbs vs. the average trade guess of 2.270 bln lbs and down from 2.089 bln lbs in January. The seasonal trend of building oil stocks typically ends when the temperatures warm and we tend to tighten over the second half of the marketing year. Meal stocks were 436 thousand short tons, up from 426 thousand short tons in January.<br> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf off 3 to +74 <br>St. Louis, MO off 1 to +16k<br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -10k<br>Mankato, MN steady -20k<br>Decatur, IL steady +6k<br>Decatur, IN steady +15k <br>Columbus, OH steady opt price k </span></div></div>