Afternoon wheat: Before the bounce, Chicago and Mpls wheat trade into new contract lows
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago May wheat started the night two lower, slipped to nine lower by the early morning, and then remained in the lower end the evening’s range through the morning pause. The market extended losses during the opening hour of the day, falling to almost 15 lower before beginning its comeback. By midday, trade had rallied eight cents off its lows, and after a brief lull, the market rallied further into the close, finishing only around four lower. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>KC May wheat started mixed, then quickly fell to three lower. Trade steadily weakened during the early morning, continuing through the morning pause where trade finished the night 14 lower. The market extended losses during the opening hour of the day, falling to more than 22 lower before the move stalled. Trade battled back during the midday time frame, at one point moving twelve cents off its lows, but the market struggled again during the latter half of the day (unwinding of long KC/Chicago spreads) and ultimately finished 14 lower. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Estimates for Monday's crop reports are below. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>All wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> are projected at 46.475 mil, with a range of estimates from as low as 45.400 mil to as high as 47.815 mil. This compares to the Forum Outlook Projections of 47.0 mil and last year’s planted acres of 46.079 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Winter wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> are projected at 33.966 mil, with a range of estimates from as low as 33.300 mil to as high as 34.310 mil. This compares to the Forum Outlook Projections of 34.115 mil and last year’s Winter wheat acres of 33.390 mil.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Spring wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> are projected at 10.531 mil, with a range of estimates from as low as 10.00 mil to as high as 11.50 mil. There were no Forum Outlook projections. Last year’s Spring wheat acres were 10.625 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Wheat quarterly grain stocks (as of March 1) are projected at 1.215 bil bu, with a range of between 1.125 bil and 1.252 bil bu. Qtrly stocks on March 1 last year were 1.089 bil bu, and on Dec 1, 2024, stocks were 1.570 bil bu.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Ukraine Ag Ministry data shows the country’s marketing year-to-date wheat exports (between July 1 and March 27) are 12.98 MMT, compared to 13.50 MMT at this time last year. Meaning, over the past ten days, Ukraine exported 470 TMT of wheat. The country has set a quota for only 16.5 MMT for its marketing year (ends June 30), with expectations now of around 16.2 MMT of exports (USDA is at 15.5 MMT).</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Weekly France AgriMer crop report placed soft wheat crop conditions at 74% G&E, unchanged from the week prior and compares to 66% this time last year. Durum wheat conditions are said to be 79% G&E, down one pct week over week and compares to 73% this time last year. Durum wheat planting progress is 99% complete.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Taiwan flour millers bought 100 TMT of US milling wheat. One consignment included 32,950 mt of DNS priced at $280.24/mt FOB (or $319.54/mt C&F), and 10,325 mt of HRW priced at $267.12/mt FOB (or $306.42/mt C&F) and 6,725 mt soft white priced at $236.26/mt FOB (or $275.56 C&F). Another consignment included 32,805 mt of DNS priced at $277.63/mt FOB (or $316.63 C&F) and 10,520 mt of HRW priced at $257.36/mt FOB (or $296.36/mt C&F) and 6,675 mt of soft white wheat priced at $239.13/mt FOB (or $278.13/mt C&F).</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Japan bought 119,847 mt of US and Canadian wheat in their usual weekly tender. The total included 60,596 mt of Canadian western red spring, 34,490 mt of US HRW and 24,761 mt of US Dark Northern Spring.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Turkey's state grain board the TMO cancelled their international tender to sell and export 50 TMT of durum wheat. The highest offer was said to be $313.50/mt FOB.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Jordan bought 50 TMT of opt origin milling wheat, paying $265/mt C&F for LH Aug shipment. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Syria bought an unknown volume of soft milling wheat. They had been in for up to 100 TMT. If the purchase is confirmed, this would be the first large scale grain tender since government power changed last year.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>April 8 Jordan is back in for up to 120 TMT of opt origin milling wheat. </span></p></div>