Afternoon Corn: The dip got bought; rest up for a wild week ahead
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Afternoon Corn: <br id=\"isPasted\"> <br>The corn market found itself under familiar selling pressure to start the day, but like Thursday, the dip got bought. Corn futures were able to rally throughout the session off those opening lows, ultimately closing 2-3 cents higher in May & July, while other positions were 1-2 cents lower. May’s intraday reversal did not prevent a lower weekly close; the market still lost 11 cents for the week. Cash was steady/firm.<br> <br>CFTC Commitment of Traders data after the close uncovered the expected fund selling in corn. For the week ended 3/25 (Tues), Managed Money traders were net sellers of 32,663 corn contracts. Commercials have been the ‘last buyer standing’, particularly as the small non-reportable trader has shifted to selling in recent weeks? When including activity, we think Managed Money is heading into the weekend net long roughly 70,000 delta-adjusted corn. This represents a ~300k contract decline from recent highs.<br> <br>Today was the last full trading day before next week’s “festivities”; the USDA Acreage and Stocks report Monday and tariff/trade policy beyond. We feel much of this week’s selling was tied to continued long liquidation in front of tariff negotiations, as well as ‘smart money’ speculation Monday’s USDA report could uncover more corn acres. The average analyst guess for 2025 corn acres is 94.4 million acres, which is higher than 94.0 mil in the USDA Outlook Forum and 90.6 million last year. This week’s selling in CZ is likely pricing in something closer to 95 million??? The other side of the coin is the Quarterly Stocks, which will likely have a greater bearing on old crop futures/spreads. The average guess is 8.15 billion bushels versus 8.35 the prior year. The results will be interesting, as there are a lot of moving parts (exports and ethanol demand up, livestock feeding likely lower). Get your track shoes on!<br> <br>News of the day likely leaned mildly supportive to corn. South Korea returned for more coverage on the corn break, with both FLC and NOFI picking up cargos of optional origin corn today, joining an earlier week purchase by MFG. South American crop conditions continue to look stable today, but we are drifting into Brazil’s dry season, where anxiety over future rainfall will rise. The U.S. Midwest remains a little drier than desired with spring planting also on the horizon. 6-10 & 8-14 day NOAA maps are warm/wet, which is favorable at this early juncture.<br> <br>Elsewhere, outside markets were decidedly risk-off today; stock market was down ~2%, and both the dollar and oil a little easier. “Stagflation” jitters of a day, with inflation data coming in a little warmer and consumption data a little cooler? End-user markets were also mostly a little softer to close out the week, though all markets except for ethanol closed higher for the week. The ethanol crush lost a little zip, but we still think an average Midwest plant is earning 5-10 c/gal profits today, net of all costs. <br> <br>In the options, volatility was firm heading into the weekend in front of a major gov’t report. 2,000 June $5.85 Calls traded at 5/8’s of a cent late morning. Calendar spreads firmed back up after a mostly softer week. Corn lost to the beans but gained on the wheat. Looking at the charts, early month lows ($4.42 CK, $4.41 CZ) have established meaningful support for corn futures, which we tested out in full today. We would expect this level to hold into the report, and then…? Initial resistance moves down to $4.60-65 for CK, and the recent short-term downtrend would be negated with a trade over $4.70. CZ looks a little less dynamic for now with range support at $4.40 and resistance at $4.60. Briefly cracked support early morning but closed well off that level? Corn futures remain mildly oversold, particularly in the new crop slot. <br> <br>KJ </span></div></div>