Afternoon Soybeans: Beans and bean oil found their footing late this week.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market posted another positive performance with support once again coming from strength in soybean oil and intermarket spreading against corn. May beans settled 6.25 higher but the leadership came from the back end of the curve as new crop November futures gained 8.5 cents. The new crop futures have been a focus of flat price buying interest as well as a spread against new crop corn in the intermarket spreading this week on ideas that Monday’s acreage report will show an even larger than anticipated swing to corn at the expense of bean acres. The ratio has taken off this week and widened out to a near 4-month high at 2.33%. Next week’s schedule is front loaded and a busy one that includes the month/quarter end position squaring, USDA stocks and acreage reports, monthly EIA biofuel consumption data (all on Monday), census crush on Tuesday and then the April 2nd reciprocal tariff reveal, aka Liberation Day on Wednesday. For the week, beans gained 13.25 (new crop +21.25 cent), meal lost $6.8, and bean oil surged +3.15 pts. <br> <br>In the product trade, bean oil remains the feature of the complex after reawakening from its slumber yesterday. Optimism over reports talks between big oil and biofuel producers about the RFS biofuel policy along with strong export demand is driving the buying interest in bean oil. Bean oil export demand will begin to fade if prices continue to gain on competing veg oils. On the board, soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil are back near even money after palm oil had climbed to over $100/mt premium this month. Meanwhile, meal broke down into a new contract low and remains the second fiddle in the oil share spreading. The oil share has recovered to 43.4%, more than a 1-month high. Meal basis was firmer in several markets today. Board crush margins gained 1 cent to $1.19/bushel. <br> <br>Elsewhere in the news, The USDA census crush report for February will be published Monday after the close. The average trade guess according to the Bloomberg survey shows a 188.6 mb crush with oil stocks at 2.268 bln lbs. <br> <br>Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated its Argentine soybean crop ratings where they saw minor deterioration to snap a five week streak of improved conditions. They rated the soybean crop as 32% G/E and 25% P/VP compared to 33% G/E and 25% P/VP last week and 31% G/E and 23% P/VP this time last year. They left their soybean production forecast unchanged at 49.6 mmt.<br> <br>With Argentina farmers betting on possible tax breaks from the government and a weakening Argentine peso, international traders say soybean sales from Argentina farmers have slowed to their lowest pace in the past 10 years. Traders point to data shows as of March 19th only 18% of the country's 24/25 MY soy crop has been sold, the only slower pace seen at this time of the year was 15.7% back in the 14/15 MY<br> <br>AgroConsult noted in a research piece, that after their crop tour they are now forecasting 24/25 Brazil Soybean production at a record 172.1 mln mt, that is 16 mln mt more than last year's crop, and 10 mln mt more than the previous record crop back in the 22/23 season. <br> <br>Strategie Grains analysts Friday left their 2025 EU Rapeseed production forecast unchanged at 19.0 mln mt, they also kept their 2025 EU soybean production forecast unchanged at 3.2 mln mt.<br> <br>Strategie Grains analysts Friday raised their 2025 EU Sunflower production forecast to 10.6 mln mt, up +100,000 mt over the prior estimate.<br> <br>EU Commission data released Thursday forecast 25/26 Rapeseed production at 19.0 mln mt, up from last season's 16.9 mln mt. <br> <br>Executives speaking at oilseed industry conference in Tianjin China Friday suggested 1Q 2025 Chinese soybean imports could fall to record low around 13.5 mln, but then expect a sharp rebound in the 2Q, forecasting as much as 35.0 mln mt of soy imports.<br> <br>Top economist with Chinese state run National Grain and Oil Information Center said announced US tariffs are not a threat to the domestic grain supply, noting markets had already anticipated to tariffs, but did concede that tariffs will significantly shift the world's trade patterns.<br> <br>China's Ag Ministry reported the end of February sow herd rose +0.6% from the year earlier month to 40.7 mln head, and up from the end of January when the herd stood at 40.6 mln head. <br> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf off 2 to +80 <br>St. Louis, MO off 1 to +18k<br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -10k<br>Mankato, MN steady -20k<br>Decatur, IL steady +6k<br>Decatur, IN up 2 to +10k <br>Columbus, OH up 10 to opt price k </span></div></div>