Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Futures testing their early month lows
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, corn futures remained under modest pressure, which continues into the start of the day session; by the biscuit break, futures were five cents lower. Suffice to say, it has been a rough week for the corn market, which even prior to today was trending toward 15 cent weekly losses. Early day session action is brushing up against the early month lows of $4.42 ½ (CK), and any lower close today would be the lowest since December. We feel much of this week’s selling is tied to continued long liquidation in front of tariff negotiations, as well as ‘smart money’ speculation Monday’s USDA report could uncover more corn acres. We will see, as the rubber is soon to meet the road; next week will deliver clarity on both issues. Meanwhile, some of the other peripheral market items may actually lean a little friendly. South Korea returned for more coverage on the corn break, with both FLC and NOFI picking up cargos of optional origin corn today. South American crop conditions continue to look stable today, but we are drifting into Brazil’s dry season, which will likely yield anxiety over needed rains continuing to fall. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report released yesterday found slightly less animals around than expected including lower farrowing intentions; a little bearish feed demand perhaps?<br> <br>The corn market held mixed – but mostly softer – feature Thursday. Futures finished about one cent lower across the curve at the midpoint of a five cent intraday range. CFTC is due to opine on market positioning tonight, but we would guess with this week’s selling, Managed Money funds are likely net long less than 90,000 contracts (versus nearly 400k on the highs). Cash trade was steady/firm. The early feature was the weekly export sales report, which was ‘solid, if unspectacular,’ for corn. New business for the week of 1,039,600 metric tons (mt) was in-line with the four week moving average; usual suspects Japan, Mexico, and Colombia, were top buyers along with more discretionary types like South Korea and Vietnam. Corn sold and shipped for the current 24/25 marketing year moves up to 53 million mt (mmt), which is comfortably ahead of the prior year’s ~43 mmt, and is ahead of pace to meet USDA sales objectives of 62 mmt. It is relatively easy to make a case that current USDA estimates are too low, but this is no normal year with patterns distorted by trade/tariff policy? <br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>-- At a privately negotiated deal Friday, Nonghyup Feed of South Korea bought around 65,000 mt of Corn, according to trade sources. They reportedly paid $252.49/mt cf for delivery by July 20th.<br> <br>-- Trade sources on Friday reported a privately negotiated deal saw Feed Leaders Committee buy around 65,000 mt of Corn. Origins accepted includes the United States, South Africa or South America. They reportedly paid $252.49/mt cf for delivery by July 10th<br> <br>-- China's Ag Ministry on Friday reported the end of February sow herd rose +0.6% from the year earlier month to 40.7 mln head, and up from the end of January when the herd stood at 40.6 mln head.<br> <br>-- Top economist with Chinese state run National Grain and Oil Information Center said announced US tariffs are not a threat to the domestic grain supply, noting markets had already anticipated to tariffs, but did concede that tariffs will significantly shift the world's trade patterns.<br> <br>-- Weekly France AgriMer crop report Friday estimated the country's Winter Barley conditions at 70% good to excellent, that's above the 67% good to excellent in the year ago week.<br> <br>-- Weekly France AgriMer crop report Friday noted the country's Spring Barley planting progress at 100% complete up from 97% last week<br> <br>-- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday afternoon estimated Corn conditions at 27% good to excellent, 47% fair, and 26% poor to very poor, that compares with the prior week's 29% good to excellent, 47% fair, and 24% poor to very poor<br> <br>-- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday afternoon estimated Corn harvest at 19.2% complete with 1.36 mln ha harvested so far, and 11.38 mln mt of corn harvested<br> <br>-- EU Commission data released Thursday forecast 25/26 Corn production at 65.0 mln mt, up from last season's 59.3 mln mt. Imports in the 25/26 MY are seen at 18.3 mln mt, down from the expected 19.5 mln mt in the 24/25 MY<br> <br>-- EU Commission data released Thursday forecast 25/26 Barley production at 51.7 mln mt, up from last season's 49.2 mln mt. Barley exports in the 25/26 MY are seen at 10.1 mln mt, up slightly from the expected 10.0 mln mt in the 24/25 MY<br> <br>-- Thursday's USDA Mar 1 2025 All Hogs: 100%; expected 101%; prior 101%<br> <br>-- Thursday's USDA Kept for Breeding: 99%; expected 100%; prior 100%<br> <br>-- Thursday's USDA Kept for Marketing: 100%; expected 101%; prior 101%<br> <br>-- Thursday's USDA Mar-May Farrowings Intents: 100%; expected 101%<br> <br>-- Thursday's USDA Jun-Aug Farrowings Intents: 99%; expected 101%<br> <br>-- President Trump's administration has requested biofuel and oil industries to work together and hash out a deal for the country's next phase of Renewable Fuels Standards biofuel policy. Reports suggest the two sides have recently met, with more meetings planned.<br> <br> <br> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>-- Pending Tender: Jordan's state grain buyer on Thursday (3/27) set April 9th as the offer deadline in a tender seeking up to 120,000 mt of feed grade Barley. The grain is for shipment from July 16 through Sept 15.<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris June corn futures on Friday are trading +0.25 euro higher at 212.25 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May corn futures on Friday traded +5 yuan higher ending at 2,265 yuan/mt<br><br>KJ</div>