Corn & Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Geopolitics promote another softer start
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn & Soybean Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, the markets were quite defensive; corn took the brunt of the damage, falling nine cents in old crop futures and 3-6 cents in new crop. Soybeans fell 8-9 cents lower, but products held up better; Meal was off just over $1 and Oil 13-16 ticks. The source of the weakness appears geopolitical in nature; U.S. metal tariffs went into effect, and Europe swiftly retaliated with ag markets a focus. The market will also be watching the Black Sea, where a Ukraine-approved cease fire has been presented to Russia. While we are highly skeptical Russia will agree, a lasting resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict would allow risk premium to be removed from the markets (though we suspect not much remains?!?) and free up world grain trade flows a notch. Stay tuned. Outside markets are taking everything in stride so far, goosed by a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print; oversold stocks and US Dollar are rebounding, while Crude Oil continues to forge ahead on a modest recovery effort. The report-du-jour will be the weekly EIA. We are expecting slightly friendly feature for ethanol. Production is likely to retreat around -2% on the start of seasonal turnarounds. Blender demand could pause after a strong showing the prior week. Ethanol inventory should hold roughly steady on the. The ethanol crush has bounced back this week after briefly falling to small losses, thanks to improved cash ethanol sentiment. A few other minor items around; there is some rain in the forward outlook for Brazil safrinha, which is likely helping to weigh on corn early. Stats Can planting favored more canola versus feedstuffs, though we will see if that survives tariffs? Export news is quiet; no 8 AM sales, though Iran is in for non-U.S. feedstuffs (corn, barley, soy meal).<br> <br>Report day brought quietly mixed trade for the markets; both corn and beans were slightly higher going into the release and turned slightly lower late session. Settlements were 1-2 cents lower for corn, 1-3 cents lower for soybeans, ~30 ticks lower for bean oil, and less than $1 lower for meal. Cash trade leaned firmer, particularly in corn, where grain buyers are trying to shake loose some farm selling. As expected, the March WASDE made only token adjustments, focused on the world S&D. Domestic carryout projections were unchanged across the board from Feb. Only soy oil saw big changes, raising US soy oil exports by 200 mil lb while cutting biofuel usage by 150 mil lb. In the world, USDA raised the world soybean crush by 3 million metric tons (mmt), which in turn knocked 3 mmt off 24/25 world carryout. At 121.41 mmt, world soy carryout is still meaningfully above recent norms (112.55 in 23/24, 101.24 mmt in 22/23). Corn statistics held a handful of small 24/25 production changes that mostly offset. The deciding factor was a long-awaited adjustment to last year’s (23/24) Brazilian corn production, which was cut -3 mmt to 119 mmt. Finally! The resulting reduced carry-in flowed directly into another cut for 24/25 world corn carryout, pegged at 288.9 mmt vs. 290.3 prior and 314.0 last year. The USDA modestly raised world carryout in both soy oil and meal.<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>**Stats Canada 2025 Corn Planting Intentions: 3.769 mln acres; expected 3.7 mln acres; 2024 = 3.65 mln acres<br> <br>**Stats Canada 2025 Oats Planting Intentions: 2.978 mln acres; expected 3.1 mln acres; 2024 = 2.9 mln acres<br> <br>**Stats Canada 2025 Barley Planting Intentions: 6.280 mln acres; expected 6.8 mln acres; 2024 = 6.4 mln acres<br> <br> **Stats Canada 2025 Canola Planting Intentions: 21.646 mln acres; expected 21.1 mln acres; 2024 = 22.01 mln acres<br> <br>**Stats Canada 2025 Soybean Planting Intentions: 5.635 mln acres; 2024 = 5.710 mln acres<br> <br>**Stats Canada 2025 Flax Planting Intentions: 0.448 mln acres; 2024 = 0.504 mln acres<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Grain trade sources Tuesday reported Iran's state feed importer set Wednesday, March 12th as the offer deadline in tender seeking up to 120,000 mt of Soymeal. The meal is for April or May shipment. Sources say today's tender announcement indicates Iran did not make any purchase in their previous pending soymeal tender that closed back on Feb 26th.<br> <br>-- Reports from eastern Ukraine say farmers there are using favorable weather conditions to start 2025 spring field preparations. A regional governor estimated the Poltava region will plant 1.4 million hectares. The federal Ukraine government is forecasting 2025 planted acres could match 2024. Last year's crop area was around 11.0 mln ha of grains, and 8.9 mln ha of oilseeds<br> <br>-- Union representative for Argentine oilseed workers Tuesday afternoon said rank and file members at soybean processing plants will go on strike Wednesday to protest wages<br> <br>-- European Commission Tuesday said technical issues are preventing it from issuing its weekly EU grain and oilseed export data for the period through March 9th<br> <br>-- In their latest forecast, France AgriMer estimated 24/25 corn ending stockpiles at 3.1 mln mt, up from the prior outlook at 2.8 mln mt.<br> <br>-- In their latest forecast, France AgriMer estimated 24/25 barley ending stockpiles at 1.3 mln mt, up from the prior outlook at 1.5 mln mt.<br> <br>-- Reports from eastern Ukraine say farmers there are using favorable weather conditions to start 2025 spring field preparations. A regional governor estimated the Poltava region will plant 1.4 million hectares. The federal Ukraine government is forecasting 2025 planted acres could match 2024. Last year's crop area was around 11.0 mln ha of grains, and 8.9 mln ha of oilseeds<br> <br>-- European Commission Tuesday said technical issues are preventing it from issuing its weekly EU grain and oilseed export data for the period through March 9th<br> <br> <br> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>-- Pending Tender: Jordan's state grain buyer on Thursday (3/6) set Wednesday, March 12th as the offer deadline in a tender seeking up to 120,000 mt of feed Barley. Shipment is expected between May 1 to July 15th.<br> <br>-- Pending Tender: Grain trade sources Wednesday reported Iran's state feed importer has delayed the offer deadline in tenders seeking up to 120,000 mt of feed Corn, and 120,000 mt of feed Barley to Monday, March 17th from Wednesday, March 12th. Shipment is expected in April or May.<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris June corn futures on Wednesday are trading -1.00 euro lower at 211.00 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May corn futures on Wednesday were unchanged at 2,320 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- Euronext Paris May rapeseed futures on Wednesday are trading -1.75 euros lower at 478.25 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May soybean futures on Wednesday traded -44 yuan lower ending at 4,046 yuan/mt; May soymeal fell -33 yuan ending at 2,844 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- On Wednesday, Dalian May vegoils traded mixed, palm oil gained +42 yuan ending at 9,000 yuan/mt, soyoil fell -58 yuan finishing at 7,856 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- Malaysian May crude palm oil futures on Wednesday traded +1 ringgit higher ending at 4,489 ringgit/mt<br> <br>-- Malaysian Apr/May/Jun cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Wednesday traded +$5/mt higher ending at $1,080.00/mt and $1,085.00/mt, respectively<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: March Soybean 60<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: March Soybean Meal 0<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: March Soybean Oil 56<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: March Corn 0</span></div><br><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">KJ</span></div>