Afternoon wheat: Crop Report data for wheat was a little bearish
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago May wheat </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>started the night four lower and fell to six lower before settling into a range trade the rest of the night. The market briefly rallied at the start of the day to a couple ticks higher, but futures fell back to three lower by the crop report. The initial reaction post-report was a move to seven lower, which was followed by a nickel rally, only for futures to revisit their lows by the end of the day. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>KC May wheat started the night four lower and fell to six lower before settling into a range trade the rest of the night. The market made a run at unchanged at the start of the day falling one tick shy, then reversed and slipped back to four lower by the crop report. Post-report price action saw trade initially fall to 7 lower before settling into a 3 to 7 lower range until late in the day when trade sold off further into the close. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>What the Crop Report said: </span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>Wheat: </span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>Expectations by most traders were that there would not be any drastic changes on the US balance sheet for wheat but there were a couple minor changes, that resulted in a somewhat bearish report as stocks were raised larger than expected, yet the market’s reaction was mostly muted. On the US balance sheet, after a one-month reprieve, the USDA raised imports again, this time by 10-mil (three previous times were only 5 mil) up to 140 mil. This raised total supply to 2.808 bil bu. On the demand side, exports were lowered 15 mil down to 835 mil. The thought was with twelve weeks remaining in their marketing year, at some point the USDA was going to have to lower their export projection, but not in this report. The net result of the changes increased 24/25 ending stocks 25 mil up to 819 mil. The avg farm price was lowered five cents to $5.50. There were several changes to ending stocks within the classes. SRW ending stocks increased 5 to 116 mil bu, Spring stocks increased 10 to 207 mil bu and durum stocks increased 10 to 45 mil bu. HRW ending stocks stayed at 382 mil bu and White ending stocks stayed at 70 mil bu.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Globally, most were looking for limited changes as well, and here too the USDA raised stocks more than expected – even larger than the highest trade estimate. Beginning stocks were raised 2 MMT (mostly Turkey), production was raised almost 3.5 MMT (Aussie 2.1 MMT, Arg 800 TMT and Ukraine 500 TMT), imports were lowered over 2 MMT (China off 1.5 MMT to only 6.5 MMT and EU off 500 TMT), domestic feed was raised 1.35 MMT (Aussie and the EU each 500 TMT) and exports were lowered 900 TMT (Aussie +1 MMT, offset by EU down 1 MMT, Russia down 500 TMT and the US down 400 TMT). The net result was Global ending stocks rising 2.52 MMT (mostly on increases for Turkey, Argentina, the US, Aussie and Russia) up to 260.08 MMT.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Deliveries: </span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>There were 11 Chicago wheat deliveries overnight. Plus500US put out all 11, while Advantage stopped 10 of the 11. There were 3 KC wheat deliveries. Plus500US put out all 3, while JP Morgan stopped all 3.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\"font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;\"></span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Coceral lowered their 2025 EU and UK soft wheat production forecast by 3.2 MMT down to 137.2 MMT. They cited lower than anticipated planting in France and Britain behind the reduction. Last year’s crop was 125.1 MMT. For the 27-country EU, Coceral reduced its soft wheat production outlook by 2.1 MMT down to 124.4 MMT, including a cut of 2.7 MMT to its French crop forecast down to 31.3 MMT. British soft wheat production was lowered 1 MMT down to 12.8 MMT.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>A couple state-by-state condition reports late yesterday showed: </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Kansas wheat</span></u></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>was rated 52% G&E and 17% P&VP, compared to 54% G&E and 14% P&VP last week.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Oklahoma wheat</span></u></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>was rated 46% G&E and 21% P&VP, compared to 35% G&E and 29% P&VP last week.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Texas wheat</span></u></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>was rated 28% G&E and 40% P&VP, compared to 34% G&E and 33% P&VP last week. The report showed the corn crop is 24% planted.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><span style=\"font-size:11pt;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>StatsCan will be out with their planting intentions report in the morning, which is based off a field crop survey.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>All Wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>are estimated on avg at 26.9 mil, with a range of between 26.2 and 27.3 mil. Last year’s acres were 26.6 mil, in 2023, they were 27.0 mil, and in 2022 they were 25.4 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Spring wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>are estimated on avg at 19.5 mil, with a range of between 19.1 and 19.8 mil. Last year’s acres were 18.95 mil, in 2023 they were 19.48 mil, and in 2022 they were 18.04 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Durum wheat acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>are estimated on avg at 6.2 mil, with a range of between 6.0 and 6.5 mil. Last year’s acres were 6.4 mil, in 2023 they were 6.0 mil, and in 2022 they were 6.0 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Canola acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>are estimated on avg at 21.7 mil, with a range of between 21.0 and 23.5 mil. Last year’s acres were 22.0 mil, in 2023 they were 22.1 mil, and in 2022 they were 21.4 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Soybean acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>are estimated on avg at 5.4 mil, with a range of between 5.3 and 5.5 mil. Last year’s acres were 5.7 mil, in 2023 they were 5.6 mil, and in 2022 they were 5.3 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Barley acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>are estimated on avg at 6.5 mil, with a range of between 5.8 and 6.9 mil. Last year’s acres were 6.4 mil, in 2023 they were 7.3 mil, and in 2022 they were 7.0 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'>Corn acres</span></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#C00000;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>are estimated on avg at 3.73 mil, with a range of between 3.7 and 3.8 mil. Last year’s acres were 3.65 mil, in 2023 they were 3.83 mil, and in 2022 they were 3.62 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Jordan passed on all eight offers and did not make a purchase in their tender for 120 TMT of opt origin milling wheat.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Syria is in for up to 100 TMT of opt origin soft milling wheat. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>March 12 Algeria’s OAIC is in for a nominal 50 TMT of milling wheat, but they usually tend to buy much more. The wheat is sought for shipment in two periods from the main supply regions including Europe: May 1-15 and May 16-31. In its last full purchase back on Feb 12, the OAIC bought between 360 and 480 TMT. </span></p></div>