Corn & Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: WASDE Day
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn & Soybean Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, the ag markets all traded with a positive bias; by the morning pause, corn finished 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 3-4 cents higher, meal $1-2 higher, and oil a few ticks better. The feature for at least a moment or two today will be the March crop report (WASDE). Historically, this is not a market-moving report, particularly with the more meaningful Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on deck at months’ end. In short, the market is looking for small reductions in world and domestic corn ending stocks, while soybeans are expected to be little changed. For our part, we would expect any curveballs to come from South American crop production, though overall we don’t think the USDA is too far off the mark today? Particularly after recent weather improvement in that region? Other news is mostly of the pedestrian variety; South Korea’s NOFI booked a couple of optional origin corn cargos. Media reports suggest Indian veg oil imports were down in February, dragging inventory there to a multi-year low. Given the recent market drop, it may not be a bad idea for them to look at taking some coverage? There were no 8 AM sales posted today after a couple (one for corn, one for soy) were uncovered yesterday.<br> <br>Compared to raucous recent history, the markets started the week in quietly mixed fashion. The soybean complex stole the show, posting lower closes across the board – 11 cents lower for old crop beans, 8 cents lower for new crop, $2/ton losses for meal, and over 1 c/lb (-2.5%) losses for bean oil. Corn futures ended steady to three cents higher. The early feature was not even a U.S. story; China imposed 100% tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil over the weekend, which roiled the veg oil trade. Canadian rapeseed futures ended the day $40 (-6%) lower, but it was a boon to palm oil futures (+3% higher) on the probability of some positive substitution. Bean Oil took a modest hit today with the idea that stranded Canadian product would trade south, possibly in a hurry to beat tariffs? Weekly Grain inspections were a positive highlight. Corn in particular shone bright; inspections for the week ended 3/6 were 1.82 million metric tons (mmt), which was better than 1.35 mmt the prior week, and 1.17 mmt the prior year. Soybeans were no slouch either, registering 0.84 mmt in shipments, up from 0.70 mmt prior week and 0.79 prior year. Difficult to say if this represents roaring demand or ‘get it while you can’ tariff fear; probably the latter?! YTD corn inspections move to 29.08 mmt vs. 21.86 on the books last year; YTD soy inspections are 38.44 mmt, running modestly ahead of 35.08 last year.<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>-- Grain trade sources reported 133,000 mt of feed Corn was bought in two consignments by Nonghyup Feed for June delivery. They reportedly paid $250.99/mt cf for half the volume, the remainder was priced at $1,5749 per bushel over CBOT corn futures. They had been seeking up to 138,000 mt.<br> <br>-- India Solvent Extractors' Association on Tuesday reported the country's total vegoil imports during February fell 12% to 899,555 mt, their lowest levels since 2021. While palm oil imports during February were up +35.7% at 373,549 mt, those gains were offset by 36% drop in soyoil imports to 283,737 mt, and 20.8% fall in sunflower oil imports to 228,275 mt.<br> <br>-- India Solvent Extractors' Association on Tuesday reported the country's end of February vegoil stockpiles have dropped -14% to 1.87 mln mt, that's a new three year low level. An executive with the group said the country is trying to rebuild their stockpiles and expects March imports to improve from February's levels.<br> <br>-- Less acres coupled with poor weather conditions suggest India's Cotton production will fall below consumption in the 24/25 crop year, according to the Cotton Association of India. The group believes cotton imports could double in the 24/25 MY to 3.0 million bales, noting since October 2024 2.2 mln bales of cotton has been imported. The group is forecasting cotton exports to fall to 1.7 mln bales from last year's 2.84 mln bales.<br> <br>-- China's agriculture ministry monthly crop Tuesday left their key 24/25 estimates for corn, cotton and soybean production and ending stocks unchanged in their monthly March report.<br> <br>-- EU and UK 2025 Rapeseed production forecast was slightly lowered to 20.3 mln mt by grain trade group, COCERAL on Tuesday. Their previous forecast was 20.3 mln mt back in December.<br> <br>-- China's agriculture ministry monthly crop Tuesday left their key 24/25 estimates for corn, cotton and soybean production and ending stocks unchanged in their monthly March report.<br> <br>-- EU and UK 2025 Corn production forecast was raised to 53.3 mln mt by grain trade group, COCERAL on Tuesday. Their previous forecast was 61.9 mln mt back in December.<br> <br>-- EU and UK 2025 Barley production forecast was lowered to 58.8 mln mt by grain trade group, COCERAL on Tuesday. Their previous forecast was 59.7 mln mt back in December.<br> <br>-- China's commerce ministry on Tuesday set March 31st for hearings on investigations over beef imports.<br> <br> <br> <br>State by State Ag Dept Weekly Crop Progress/Conditions<br> <br>-- Texas state crop progress report released Monday (3/10) afternoon estimated the Corn crop 24% planted, up from NA% last week, leading the 19% in year ago week, and the long term average at 23%<br> <br>-- Texas state crop progress report released Monday (3/10) afternoon estimated the Sorghum crop 20% planted, up from NA% last week, leading the 17% in year ago week, and the long term average at 19%<br> <br>-- In the Blacklands, the Cross Timbers, the Upper Coast, and the Lower Valley, producers were planting corn and sorghum<br> <br><strong>Analysts Estimates for March 2025 USDA-WASDE US Production and US-World Ending Stocks</strong><br>(<em>To be released March 11, 2025 at 11:00 am CT</em>)<br>Corn:<br><table border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\"><tbody><tr><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>Average Estimate</u></strong></td><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>USDA February 2025 Report</u></strong></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>US Ending Stocks</u></strong><br><strong>(bln bu)</strong></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>US 24/25 Marketing Year</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">1.52</td><td valign=\"top\">1.540</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>World Ending Stocks</u></strong><br><strong>(mln mt)</strong></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>24/25 Marketing Year</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">289.9</td><td valign=\"top\">290.3</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>23/24 South American Corn Production</u></strong><br><u>(mln mt)</u></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>Argentina</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">49.0</td><td valign=\"top\">50.0</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>Brazil</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">126.1</td><td valign=\"top\">126.0</td></tr></tbody></table> <br><strong><u>Soybeans:</u></strong><br><table border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\"><tbody><tr><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>Average Estimate</u></strong></td><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>USDA February 2025 Report</u></strong></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>US 2025 Crop</u></strong><br><u>(bln bu)</u></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>Soybean Production</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">NA</td><td valign=\"top\">NA</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>Soybean Yield</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">NA</td><td valign=\"top\">NA</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>US Ending Stocks</u></strong><br>(bln bu)</td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>US 24/25 Marketing Year</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">0.37</td><td valign=\"top\">0.380</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>World Ending Stocks</u></strong><br>(mln mt)</td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>24/25 Marketing Year</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">124.6</td><td valign=\"top\">124.34</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong><u>23/24 South American Soybean Production</u></strong><br><u>(mln mt)</u></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><br></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>Argentina</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">48.9</td><td valign=\"top\">49.0</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><ul type=\"disc\"><li>Brazil</li></ul></td><td valign=\"top\">169.2</td><td valign=\"top\">169.0</td></tr></tbody></table> <br>-- Euronext Paris June corn futures on Tuesday are trading -0.75 euro lower at 212.25 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May corn futures on Tuesday traded +4 yuan higher finishing at 2,320 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- Euronext Paris May rapseed futures on Tuesday are trading +0.50 euro higher at 482.25 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May soybean futures on Tuesday traded -67 yuan lower finishing at 4,090 yuan/mt; May soymeal fell -51 yuan ending at 2,877 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- On Tuesday, Dalian May vegoil futures traded sharply lower, soyoil fell -94 yuan ending at 7,914 yuan/mt, palm oil dropped -198 yuan ending at 8,958 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- Malaysian May crude palm oil futures on Tuesday traded -11 ringgit lower ending at 4,488 ringgit/mt<br> <br>-- On Tuesday, Malaysian cash offers for Apr/May/Jun RBD palm oil and olein traded -$5/mt lower ending at $1,075.00/mt and $1,080.00/mt, respectively<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: March Soybean 0<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: March Soybean Meal 1<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: March Soybean Oil 195<br> <br>-- CBOT Deliveries: March Corn 0<br><br>KJ</div>