The AG Center Cattle Report for Mar 10 2025

<div class="default-font-wrapper" style="line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt !important; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif !important;">  <article class="post-4369 page type-page status-publish hentry" id="post-4369">   <div class="entry-content content">    <p class="has-vivid-red-color has-text-color" id="block-a2389dc5-71fb-4368-8345-f2ec6b860fbc">     <strong>      March 10, 2025     </strong>    </p>    <h2 class="wp-elements-3b4fb793afda68d8c2d84f7008fd8436 wp-block-heading has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size">     <strong>      THE MARKETS     </strong>    </h2>    <p>     The $7 gains in the futures market was not matched by live prices but gains in cash prices were mainly strong in the northern plains. Cattle owners will attempt to follow through this week and asking prices will be higher. Attention will focus on the size of this weeks slaughter and the direction and interest in beef from the retailers.    </p>    <p>     Fridays closing action in the fed trade confirms the notion that few participants are able to read this market or know where it is going. Morning bids of $196 failed to capture any sales in the north and it wasnt long before the market prices had moved first to $200 then $202. Dressed prices were reported at $315, but later some sales were at $317-8. In the south packers raised bids to $200 in Kansas where a few cattle traded. The range of prices in the south was from $195 to $200 for the week. Depending on when you sold, where you were, all prices except the early week sales in the south, were higher.    </p>    <p>     Processors slaughtered 578,000 cattle this past week up 12,000 from the previous week, and down 6,000 from last year. This is the fifth week of lower slaughter volumes, but this week improved volumes from the previous 4 weeks. March is a transition month moving to hopefully improved demand for beef.  Box prices firmed at the end of the week but processors failed to gain much ground for margins. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in decline.    </p>    <p>    </p>    <p>     <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/livestock/live-cattle.quotes.html">      CATTLE FUTURES     </a>     . Futures posted the strongest gains in several weeks. The front spot month was up $4 Friday and remains on par with cash prices. The generous basis levels of the past few weeks have disappeared and cash and futures are now tracking each other when trade news doesnt interfere.    </p>    <p>    </p>    <p class="has-black-color has-text-color">     B     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3492.pdf">      enchmarking     </a>     . On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.    </p>    <p id="block-3a527fb0-3476-45d2-9ec5-51cf8a199914">     The     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2700.pdf">      Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report     </a>     offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous weeks change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 910# down 13# from prior week and 38# heavier than last year. Last year severe weather harmed cattle performance and diminished carcass weights. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was down .3% at 84.40%. This was flat with last year.    </p>    <p>     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls196.txt">      The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report     </a>     is indicative of regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences is live price. The report is also reflective of the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.    </p>    <p id="block-cdd71a86-4fa0-47b4-bcb5-76846ca0f63d">     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2480.pdf">      Forward Cattle Contracts     </a>     :  Forward contracts will always bear some relationship to the corresponding futures month closest to the delivery month for the cattle. Basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producers plate in return for an extra margin.    </p>    <p>     Formula and Negotiated Grids.     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3492.pdf">      The Price and Distribution Report     </a>     delineates the various selling methods and net results.    </p>    <p>     The     <a href="https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/Cattle_Contract_Library">      Cattle Contracts Report     </a>     details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.    </p>    <div class="wp-container-3 wp-block-columns">     <div class="wp-container-1 wp-block-column" style="flex-basis:50%">      <div>       <div b-8t6ywgks0t="" class="page">        <main b-8t6ywgks0t="">         <article b-8t6ywgks0t="">          <div b-um8akl0e21="" style="width: 100%; ">           <div b-tm71bht29o="" style="display: none;">           </div>           <table b-tm71bht29o="" class="gridview_441aa1a3_c4e3_409f_9e92_559f9309f08e">            <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_head">             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_2_header">              Choice Cutout             </th>             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_3_header">              Choice Price Change             </th>            </tr>            <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_row">             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <td class="gridview_field_2 gridview_fields_all">              314.90             </td>             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <td class="gridview_field_3 gridview_fields_all">              Up $1.78             </td>            </tr>           </table>          </div>         </article>        </main>       </div>      </div>     </div>     <div class="wp-container-2 wp-block-column" style="flex-basis:50%">      <div>       <div b-8t6ywgks0t="" class="page">        <main b-8t6ywgks0t="">         <article b-8t6ywgks0t="">          <div b-um8akl0e21="" style="width: 100%; ">           <div b-tm71bht29o="" style="display: none;">           </div>           <table b-tm71bht29o="" class="gridview_b17b1c02_e1ac_47fd_8248_039e2592cba7">            <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_head">             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_2_header">              Select Cutout             </th>             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_3_header">              Select Price Change             </th>            </tr>            <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_row">             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <td class="gridview_field_2 gridview_fields_all">              305.80             </td>             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <td class="gridview_field_3 gridview_fields_all">              Up $2.29             </td>            </tr>           </table>          </div>         </article>        </main>       </div>      </div>     </div>    </div>    <p>     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswbfrtl.pdf">      Beef Feature Activity Index.     </a>    </p>    <p>     Beef demand is coming mostly from the grind that represents almost half of all beef sold. Winter weather pushes consumers to end meats and roasts and historically a spring warm up triggers demand for the middle meats and cook outs. The daily fluctuations of the primals represents seasonal changes and consumer preferences caused by pricing.    </p>    <p id="block-c889d984-aa16-4a66-891e-0b32eb47a1c3">     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lsddcbs.pdf">      The Cutout     </a>     . The cutout was higher to close the week. This time of year the choice/select spread starts to widen.    </p>    <p id="block-c889d984-aa16-4a66-891e-0b32eb47a1c3">     <strong>      Replacement markets     </strong>    </p>    <p id="block-4eb0b041-903c-474d-86ba-dc5d1d1974c3">     One way to introduce volatility into the cash markets for replacement cattle is reduce volumes. Light receipts across the auction markets has reversed the downtrend in prices and pushed prices back to the previous nosebleed levels. Understanding the impact of trade wars on the supply chain is difficult business. Both Mexico and Canada provide replacement cattle into the U.S. and any disruption of those movements will sharply impact replacement cost in this country of an already overheated market. Canada provides a weekly supply of fed cattle into beef plants in the northwest.    </p>    <p id="block-4eb0b041-903c-474d-86ba-dc5d1d1974c3">     Cattle trade in dollars per hundred weight. As those prices rise, so do the incremental amounts of change that once were reported in fractions of dollars but now in dollars. In todays markets it is not unusual for a marketplace to report market price increases or declines in $5 cwt. and $10 cwt. increments. Part of the change is volatility and part an adjustment to the new price levels. Ultimately, the relevant fact will be the percent change from the previous price level.    </p>    <p id="block-4eb0b041-903c-474d-86ba-dc5d1d1974c3">     The     <a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx">      drought monitor     </a>     continues to favor herd expansion but the rains never fall evenly across all regions. Wintertime moisture is probably less important than spring moisture when crops are planted and grass begins to green for summer grazing. The current forecasts are all over the board with some calling for a dry spring and other reports trending towards normal rainfall.    </p>    <p>     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/AMS_1280.pdf">      Oklahoma City     </a>     . -    </p>    <p>     Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to mostly 4.00 lower. Stocker steers and steer calves 8.00-12.00 higher. Stocker heifers and heifer calves mostly steady. Demand moderate to good for feeders as cattle futures continue to trade in the red. Buyers more finicky for kind and condition. Demand still very good for stockers and calves, especially steers. Rain is expected to move across the state     <br/>     later this evening. Western Oklahoma received nice rains yesterday, putting a very slight dent in the drought. Quality average to attractive but cattle coming off wheat in average to fleshy conditions. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (53% Steers, 46% Heifers, 1% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 73%    </p>    <p id="block-34528486-452c-47a8-93c1-457c87e8cf71">     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_1281.pdf">      OKC West     </a>    </p>    <p>     Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves sold fully steady compared to last weeks sharply higher market. Demand remains good for calves and stocker cattle. Rain is in the forecast for most of the week. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (39% Steers, 0% Dairy Steers, 58% Heifers, 3% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 23%.    </p>    <p>     <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/livestock/feeder-cattle.html">      Feeder Cattle Futures     </a>     . The feeder contracts were higher.    </p>    <p>     The lack of liquidity in the feeder contract provides a perfect environment for prices to move too far in either direction. Poor liquidity leads to extreme volatility. Overdone directional price movements frequently require corrections and traders sense the vulnerability of the contract that needs to be cash settled but the contract index needs a redo.    </p>    <p id="block-bfcf4811-2a0e-4226-b09b-c42952601661">     <a data-id="https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=ICX:CME" data-type="URL" href="https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=ICX:CME">      Feeder Cattle Cash Index     </a>     . The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.    </p>    <p id="block-987ad7bf-7826-470c-91d0-cb5d19156f32">     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/feeder-cattle-internet-video-reports">      Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions     </a>     . The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets.    </p>    <p id="block-b7968674-f137-4a0b-be65-ee147fe19634">     <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sj_ls850.txt">      National Weekly Feeder Summary     </a>     released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.    </p>    <p class="has-black-color has-text-color">     <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/corn.html">      Grain Futures.     </a>     Corn prices moved higher to close the week. The status of our trade agreements with both Mexico and Canada are formative of prices for grain. Corn basis levels will switch to the May contract. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at $1.00 - basis the May contract.    </p>    <h2 class="wp-block-heading has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color">     WHO IS PULLING THE STRINGS?    </h2>    <p>     Market participants were left clueless to identify the puppet master. Several consecutive weeks of smaller slaughter volumes and declining cutout prices set the stage for a pessimistic view of the marketplace. Enter the President and market moving news regarding tariffs and trade policy and the stage was set for market moves involving front runners in the futures contracts, computerized algorithms, and finally disruptive weather in the northern plains.    </p>    <p>     The fundamentalist bulls see springtime ahead and burgeoning beef demand as a driver. Short bought packers were thrown into this mix following several weeks of slowing the slaughter to reverse increasing losses at the beef plant. The technical traders saw futures hold and bounce off moving averages to set the stage for another leg up - possibly testing all-time highs. Processors worried that 25% tariffs would shutdown the movement of fed cattle from Canada to the northwestern beef plants. Texas feedlots fear the tariffs would stop the flow of Mexican cattle into the U.S..  Each view provided differing views of the marketplace.    </p>    <p>     None of the theories de jure was confirmed by weeks end. Trump kicked the ball down the road on tariffs. Technical traders look for more confirmation of rally mode in retesting resistance points. One fact that was verified was the advance in cash prices that proved substantial on Friday. This left only the front runners, who are privileged to inside information about trade announcements, to profit from volatility in the futures market.    </p>    <p>     The reversal in cash prices will certainly not spur the processors to jump the slaughter volumes without strong support from box prices. The coming week will test improvement in beef demand. All the extraordinary and extraneous factors will continue to play a role in market prices. Opening the curtain for a transparent look at what is happening is not in the cards. The playbook will remain a mystery to all but the puppet master.    </p>    <p>    </p>    <p>    </p>    <h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="block-573e0ddc-725d-4da7-b391-3755a41b3cae">     <strong>      <a href="https://cattlereport.agcenter.com/the-cattle-report-library-page/">       CATTLE REPORT LIBRARY      </a>     </strong>    </h2>    <p id="block-2c233259-805d-40fb-aa45-7b26e558b177">     Change is a necessity for any sustainable industry and sometimes necessary changes encounter obstacles in the form of stalwarts who refuse change. The Cattle Report has created a     <a href="https://cattlereport.agcenter.com/the-cattle-report-library-page/">      library page     </a>     of opinions pieces published on these pages advocating fundamental and structure changes for the industry.    </p>    <p id="block-b4e25beb-e0c0-4159-948a-b1da16a8115f">     <strong>      NOTE TO READERS     </strong>    </p>    <p id="block-71dc3367-4f65-4635-b235-efe51e6f5750">     Sections of the newsletter are designed with hyperlinks to the appropriate source pages. The hyperlinks are in light blue within the report.    </p>    <p class="has-vivid-cyan-blue-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size" id="block-4122b7d6-fc8c-4a02-b924-d92f81b3ae80">     <strong>      EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES     </strong>    </p>    <p id="block-83cbd36c-d741-40fa-8b86-12bd2b699341">     Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.    </p>    <p id="block-95888247-d725-4ed9-8aee-1c9c999079d9">     CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION    </p>    <p class="has-extra-small-font-size">     The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out.  The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.    </p>    <div class="wp-container-5 wp-block-columns">     <div class="wp-container-4 wp-block-column">      <div>       <div b-8t6ywgks0t="" class="page">        <main b-8t6ywgks0t="">         <article b-8t6ywgks0t="">          <div b-um8akl0e21="" style="width: 100%; ">           <div b-tm71bht29o="" style="display: none;">           </div>           <table b-tm71bht29o="" class="gridview_77b53319_3218_43a0_97df_250f9a5d816c">            <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_head">             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_3_header">              INPUTS             </th>             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_4_header">              TOTAL$             </th>             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <th class="gridview_fields_all gridview_field_5_header">              $CWT             </th>            </tr>            <tr b-9afehpm3bq="" class="gridview_row">             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <td class="gridview_field_3 gridview_fields_all">              800 # Feeder Steer             </td>             <div style="display: none;">             </div>             <td class="gridview_field_4 gridview_fields_all">