Afternoon Corn: 5 cents lower for the week as $5 remains a tough front month barrier
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Afternoon Corn: <br id=\"isPasted\"> <br>Corn futures rode the struggle bus today after losing momentum following a brief early week rally over $5 CH. The market finished the day 6-8 cents lower in old crop positions and 3-5 cents lower elsewhere. Corn closed five cents lower for the week and nearly fifteen cents off Tuesday’s high print. Cash trade was mostly steady.<br> <br>Overall, it was a quiet news day, but there were other inputs to occupy traders, such as March options expiration. Weekly export sales maintained their recent positive heading, but did not really impress or surprise. New corn export business for the week was 1,453,800 metric tons, which is 5% below the prior four week average. Mexico and Japan accounted for roughly two-thirds of the sales and were supplemented by small lots to Spain, Colombia, and Vietnam. Corn sold/shipped for the current marketing year moves up to 47.9 million metric tons (mmt), which is comfortably ahead of the prior year’s 37.0 tally, and is 77% of the USDA’s sale goal of 62.2 mmt. There were no 8 AM sales flashes today, and export news has been mostly absent this short week.<br> <br>CFTC Commitment of Traders report after the close found the expected fund buying in corn. For the week ended 2/18 (Tuesday), Managed Money funds were net buyers of 21,144 corn contracts. Commercial traders remain the primary (selling) counterparty. When including recent activity, we think funds are heading into the weekend net long roughly 340,000 delta-adjusted corn contracts.<br> <br>Elsewhere, outside markets were also in a tetchy mood today. The stock market sold off roughly 2%, oil was over $2/bbl lower, and the US Dollar Index recovered a chunk of the prior day’s losses. End-user markets were mostly easier today, excepting cattle which were a little higher. After the close, monthly Cattle on Feed data was near expected with ‘on feed’ inventory seen 99% of year earlier: placements were 102% and marketings 101% (ie: up 1% yr/yr). U.S. milk production was up +0.2% yr/yr in January; the total dairy herd was +54,000 greater yr/yr (+0.1%) and 9,000 higher than prior month. South American weather is still a factor but felt a little ‘back-burnery’ this week. Argentina is getting warm and dry again after a rain reprieve, while Brazilian farmers are attempting to plant safrinha in less-than-ideal conditions in some circumstances. Next week will likely focus more on the U.S. acreage picture with the USDA Outlook Forum meeting Thurs-Fri.<br> <br>In the options, volatility sold off as the market eased off recent price highs. March expiration may have added some pressure as the market moved away from a nearby $5 pin? Calendar spreads were mixed; March spreads bounced back but new crop gained on old crop. Corn was the ugly house on the block, losing to both soy and wheat today. Looking at the charts, $5 CH continues to represent psychological (and overhead) resistance. The latest failure to hold this level has corn back in search of support. Today’s break has the market brushing up against moving average support (currently right around $4.90 CH) that fund longs have actively defended in recent weeks. Stay tuned? Dec ’25 entered the day overbought, and the ensuing correction leaves $4.80 behind as initial resistance. We still expect CZ to find good support around $4.65-4.70.<br> <br>KJ</span></div></div>