Afternoon wheat: Despite the lower finish, SRW futures post their fifth consecutive higher weekly close
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago March wheat saw slightly higher trade early in the night, with futures reaching five higher before suddenly reversing and gradually weakening over the latter half of the evening and finishing three lower. The negative vibe carried over to the day, but the break caught midday at eight lower and levelled out, ultimately finishing five lower. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>March KC wheat saw higher trade early in the night, with futures reaching seven higher before reversing and steadily falling over the latter half of the evening and finishing a couple cents lower. Once the day session started the market weakened a bit more, but much of the trade throughout the day remained in a narrow range of between two and six cents lower and ultimately finished within that narrow parameter. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The Feb WASDE will be out Tuesday morning. It is typically not a market moving report, as it contains no new US crop projections, while minor domestic and world balance sheet tweaks are possible but not always delivered. For now, trade expectations are for a small reduction in both US corn and soybean carryout (little change in wheat). US ending stocks in wheat are expected to be roughly unchanged month over month with the avg trade estimate coming in at 799 mil bu compared to 798 mil bu last month, with a range of estimates between 785 mil and 823 mil bu. Global ending stocks are not expected to see much change either, but they are expected to fall slightly, with an avg trade estimate of 258.60 MMT compared to 258.82 MMT last month. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>Stats Can ending stocks data (as of Dec 31) showed: </span></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#7030A0;\'>All Wheat stocks</span></u></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#7030A0;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>were 24.481 mil vs expectations of 23.01 mil. In last year’s report, ending stocks as of Dec 31 were 20.681 mil, and the year prior were 22.294 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#7030A0;\'>Durum stocks</span></u></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#7030A0;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>were 3.615 mil vs expectations of 2.73 mil. In last year’s report, ending stocks as of Dec 31 were 3.959 mil, and the year prior were 3.695 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#7030A0;\'>Canola stocks</span></u></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#7030A0;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>were 11.382 mil vs expectations of 11.85 mil. In last year’s report, ending stocks as of Dec 31 were 12.851 mil, and the year prior were 11.356 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#7030A0;\'>Barley stocks</span></u></strong><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:#7030A0;\'> </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:black;\'>were 4.958 mil vs expectations of 4.66 mil. In last year’s report, ending stocks as of Dec 31 were 5.453 mil, and the year prior were 5.072 mil. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><span style=\"font-size:11pt;color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The AMIS Market Monitor lowered their Global wheat production forecast 2.8 MMT month over month down to 788.9 MMT. They cited some major producing countries such as Russia, the EU, Turkey and Ukraine continue to see some issues with their crops and will offset any potential increase out of China and Australia. Last month, the USDA was not too far from the AMIS Global production estimate, as they were projecting production at around 793.2 MMT. The lower production forecast led to a lower World wheat ending stock’s forecast. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Friday was the first of five straight days of the Goldman index fund roll where long March positions are rolled to the May futures on the close. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>UN's World food index for January dipped to 124.9 in January down from December's 127.0. January's index is +6.2% over the year-ago month but is 22% below its peak in spring of 2022.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>On Thursday, Japan bought 96,725 mt of Canadian and US origin wheat in their usual weekly tender. The total includes 32,180 mt of Canadian red spring, 31,630 mt of US HRW, 19,885 mt of US white and 14,260 mt of US Dark Northern Spring.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Also Thursday, Korea bought 30 TMT of US and Canadian wheat. The breakdown included 17,000 mt of DNS priced at $278/mt FOB, 4,500 mt of soft white priced at $240/mt FOB, 1,200 mt of HRW priced around $250/mt FOB and 7,300 mt of Canadian red spring priced around $269.25/mt FOB.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>On Wednesday, South Korean flour millers bought 85 TMT of US milling wheat (had been in for around 50 TMT). The breakdown included 37,130 mt of soft white priced between $231.34/mt and $237.63/mt FOB, 9,830 mt of HRW priced at $254.34/mt FOB and 14,140 mt of DNS priced at $278.84/mt FOB.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>On Tuesday, Jordan passed on all offers and did not make a purchase in their tender for up to 120 TMT of opt origin milling wheat. Seven companies were said to have participated, but it is unclear at what prices were offered. Last week Jordan bought around 50 TMT paying a reported $265.25/mt C&F. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Feb 11 Jordan is back in for 120 TMT of milling wheat.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Feb 19 Bangladesh is back in for 50 TMT of milling wheat. They have several tenders still open, with some possibly taking a considerable amount of time before purchases can be confirmed. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p></div>