Afternoon Soybeans: A quiet finish to a wild week.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market traded weaker in another light volume session. March beans were unable to hold modest overnight gains and settled 11 cents lower while the November contract dropped 8.5 cents. The bull spreads were weaker in both the nearby and the old to new crop calendars. Today was the first day of the five day Goldman index fund roll where long March positions are rolled to the May futures on the close. Open interest in March futures is in decline as traders begin to liquidate positions ahead of March option expiration in two weeks and first notice day in three weeks. The cash markets were quiet today with domestic bean basis mostly steady. For the week, beans gained 7.5 cents in the spot month while the new crop gained 6.5 cents.<br> <br>While the week ended on a quiet note, we all need to make sure to get some rest this weekend because President Trump told GOP legislators that he will announce reciprocal tariffs on American imports of foreign goods that are equal to trading partners' tariffs on American exports next week. He also issued an executive order delaying de minimis package suspension from China, until the US Commerce Dept places adequate procedures and systems to process them expediently.<br> <br>Argentina crop conditions vary greatly with considerable stress across the central and north as well as the far south; however, key crop areas in the heart of the nation seem to be doing relatively well. A smaller crop is still expected, although today’s forecast models lean a little wetter than they were yesterday – at least in week two although some of the rainfall totals may be overstated. <br> <br>Brazil’s outlook calls for continued scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next ten days keeping the nation moist except in the northeast. Many Safrinha crop areas are still too wet and need several days of drying to induce ideal soybean harvest and Safrinha corn planting conditions. A slow evolution toward better field working conditions is expected over the next week to ten days.<br> <br>Safras Mercado on Friday estimated 24/25 Brazil soybean production at 174.88 mln mt, that's up from their previous forecast at 173.71 mln mt (USDA 169). Safras Mercado analysts on Friday estimated 24/25 Brazil soybean sales at 39.4% of expected production, that compares with the year ago period's 31.9% as late 2024 currency weakness encouraged a more aggressive sales posture. <br> <br>We have a crop report to look forward to on Tuesday – the Feb WASDE is not typically a major market mover. The trade is expecting small reductions in the domestic row crop carryouts while on the global balance sheet, Argentina’s crops are expected to be reduced a notch with Brazil’s corn crop slightly reduced while the bean crop is increased. <br> <br>In the product trade, soybean oil settled solidly higher by .58 pts (+1.2%) with outside support from strength in Malaysian palm oil (+2.3%) and canola (+1.0%). Stats Can canola stocks on Dec 31 were 11.38 mmt vs. 11.9 mmt expected and compares to yr ago stocks of 12.85 mmt. Meal settled $5 easier on the other side of the oil share spreading. The oil share spread gained for a third consecutive session. Board crush margins gained 6 cents to $1.19/bushel. For the week, bean oil lost .13 pts while meal gained $.3. <br> <br>Elsewhere in the news, The soybean harvest for the 2024/25 crop in Mato Grosso Brazil advanced 16.38% in the weekly comparison, reaching 28.58% of the areas forecast for the season by Friday (02/07).<br> <br>Brazil government data showed January soybean exports totaled 1.073 mmt vs. 2.855 mmt a year ago. Corn exports totaled 3.594 mmt vs. 4.876 mmt a year ago.<br> <br>The Buenos Aire Grain Exchange reported Argentina’s soybean crop rated 17% G/E and 32% P/VP compared to 20% G/E and 28% P/VP last week and 31% G/E and 19% P/VP a year ago. The corn crop was rated 25% G/E and 26% P/VP compared to 28% G/E and 22% P/VP last week and 63% G/E and 37% P/VP a year ago.<br> <br>Stats Canada Dec 31 2024 Canola Stocks: 11.382 mln mt; expected 11.9 mln mt; yr ago 12.851 mln mt<br> <br>Stats Canada Dec 31 2024 Soybean Stocks: 4.151 mln mt; yr ago 3.831 mln mt<br> <br>Ahead of next week's Malaysian Palm Oil Board January data release, analysts are forecasting palm oil production around 1.32 mln mt, exports in January at 1.15 mln mt. The production estimate is off -11% from December, and exports are seen off 14.6% from December. End of January palm oil stocks are forecast at 1.65 mln mt, if realized would be off -3.5% from the prior month. The data will be released Monday, Feb 10th.<br> <br>Global food commodity prices fell in January, led by sharp declines in sugar and vegetable oils, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 124.9 points in January against 127.0 in December. Despite the monthly decline, the index remained 6.2% higher than a year earlier but was still 22% below its March 2022 peak.<br> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf off 2 to +68 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -35h<br>Mankato, MN steady -50h<br>Decatur, IL steady -15h<br>Decatur, IN steady opt price h <br>Columbus, OH steady -20h </span></div></div>