Afternoon Corn: An early dip got bought; Goldman Roll starts Friday
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Afternoon Corn: <br id=\"isPasted\"> <br>Corn futures held somewhat mixed feature of the day. The market was surprisingly soft early, trading more than five cents lower mid-morning. But, the bull once again defended his turf, and corn closed the day 1-3 cents higher. Funds are believed net long just under 370,000 delta-adjusted corn contracts with a CFTC update pending tomorrow (Friday). Cash trade was steady, leaning easier.<br> <br>The weekly export sales report arrived in good stead for corn, beating market expectations. For the week ended Jan 30th, new corn sales were 1,477,200 metric tons, up +9% from a solid showing the prior week. Buyers for the week included Mexico, Japan, Korea, and Latin America. Corn sold plus shipped moves up to 44.77 million metric tons (mmt), which is running meaningfully ahead of the prior year’s 34.91 mmt. The news was not all good; South Korea (MFG) passed on their corn tender overnight, citing high prices. Seeing some importer price resistance makes sense with futures near $5 and Brazil safrinha corn offers likely forthcoming this spring?<br> <br>South American weather remained on a familiar trajectory. Argentina received beneficial rains over the past couple days, but the area impacted was not broad (albeit important). So, more will be needed, and in the appropriate locations. Brazil second crop fieldwork is touch and go; there is some optimism better (drier) weather could evolve mid-month? After the close, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated 25% of the Argy corn crop was rated Good or Excellent, down -3% from the previous report.<br> <br>Elsewhere, end-user markets were split evenly between “steady/better” (milk and hogs) and lower (Cattle off $3-4, ethanol down 1). The big macro was likely not much of an influence. Weekly broiler hatchery data late yesterday found egg sets up +2% and broiler chicks placed up +3% on a yr/yr basis. Thailand is in for feed wheat and Algeria tendered for South American corn. News services were publishing estimates in advance of the Feb WASDE, due Tuesday.<br> <br>In the options, volatility was a touch easier. The Goldman Roll starts tomorrow (Fri); spread volumes are likely to blow up. Wheat was the upside leader today; corn lost to it but was near-even on the beans. Looking at the charts, corn has been well supported on weakness; initial support moves up to $4.85 in CH, with more critical levels in the $4.70-4.75 area. Overhead resistance between $5 and $5.05 in CH looms ahead. The daily RSI is not yet especially overbought with a reading of 63 (CH). Dec ’25 should feature some resistance around $4.70-4.75. CZ support at $4.55 also held Monday and remains operative.<br> <br>KJ </span></div></div>