Afternoon Soybeans: USDA confirmed record crush in December this afternoon\'s census report.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market made an impressive turnaround trade by shaking off overnight tariff pressure and reversing with an outside day up out of a new recent low after a meeting this morning with the Mexican President produced immediate results. March beans settled 16.25 cents and 26.5 cents off the low. The new crop November futures gained 12.25 cents. The bull spreads flipped from softer to firm as flat price made its turn. Besides the tariff drama, beans also had weather and export inspections as supportive influences while this afternoon’s crush report showed ongoing record breaking crush.<br> <br>The 25% tariff on Mexican/US trade was formally delayed by a month after the opening negotiation resulted in 10,000 Mexican troops assigned to the border with pledges to halt fentanyl from coming into the US and certain weapons from being smuggled out. The deal provides a roadmap for Canada if they are willing to work together to solve the border issue – if not, escalating tariffs will force the issue. The two sides are scheduled to speak this afternoon. China negotiations will be more complicated and difficult but today’s lesson is that there are no safe assumptions and these tariff talks are fluid. <br> <br>Weather in the Southern Hemisphere is stressful in Argentina and wet in most of Brazil. Argentina’s crops will have chances for needed rain over the next couple of weeks. The first round mid-week will be key for the dry region around Buenos Aires while most of the rest of precip is unevenly distributed. Temps will regularly top 90 degrees with some extremes above 100 possible. Brazil continues to be frustrated by wet conditions that are slowing soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. Bean yields out of Mato Grosso are reportedly excellent. The best drying opportunity will be late this week and through the weekend. Export logistics are becoming increasingly back logged as harvest expands. <br> <br>Weekly grain inspections of corn were 49 mb equal to last week's total, bean inspections were 37 mb up from 27 mb last week, wheat inspections were 9 mb down from 18 mb last week. <br> <br>Marketing year to date, corn inspections total 856 mb which is almost 33% ahead of last year's pace of 642 mb. Weekly corn inspections need to average about 53 mb to reach the USDA’s target of 2.450 bb. Bean inspections total 1.252 bb which is about 16% ahead of last year's pace of 1.082 bb. Weekly bean inspections need to average 20 mb to reach the USDA’s target of 1.825 bb. Wheat inspections total 515 mb which is 24% ahead of last year's pace of 415 mb. Weekly wheat inspections need to average 24 mb to reach the USDA’s target of 850 mb. China loaded out 4 bean cargoes from the Gulf, and 2 bean boats and 1 sorghum off the PNW.<br> <br>USDA census crush report showed December crush at 217.7 mb, right in line with the average trade estimate. This represents a new record crush for any month. The average daily crush set a new record of 7.02 mb/day up from the recent record set in November of 7.00 mb/day. Soyoil stocks as of Dec. 31 were 1.695 bln lbs, falling short of the average estimate at 1.734 bln lbs although it was an increase from November inventories at 1.613 bln lbs. Meal stocks tightened to 414,192 short tons from 463,019 in November.<br> <br>In the product trade, bean oil settled at a 2.5 month high but finished on the lower end of the day’s range after the early tariff price trends reversed of moderated across the markets. The USDA projects imports 3.6 mmt of rapeseed oil in 24/25 (I assume most from Canada) which is a competing feedstock for biofuel blending. Meal shook of early weakness and reversed for a higher close. The oil share traded to a 2.5 month high before giving it all back for an unchanged close. Board crush margins dropped by 6 cents to $1.22/bushel. <br> <br>Elsewhere in the news, Pres Trump: expects to speak with China over the next 24 hours, claims China won't be involved much longer in the Panama Canal.<br> <br>China's envoy to the United Nations says the Beijing government may be forced to place countermeasures against the US and will file complaint at the World Trade Organization, saying US moves are in violation of the WTO. China's envoy to the United Nations says the US should look inward on fentanyl rather than trying to shift blame to others<br> <br>US Customs Monday afternoon said formal customs entry will be required for all international mail shipments from China and Canada. US Customs said Chinese imports that are eligible for temporary duty exemptions will be subject to 10% additional US tariffs.<br> <br>President Trump: we should use fewer agriculture chemicals.<br> <br>Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop is projected at 174 mmt vs. 170.8 mmt in previous estimate according to Celeres.<br>AgRural est Brazil's soybean harvest at 9% complete, 1st corn harvest 14%, Sarfinha corn planting at 9%.<br> <br>Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil at 12.2% complete according to state agency IMEA. This is below the 5 yr avg pace of 25.3%. Corn planting (Safrinha) at 6.3% complete down from 5 yr avg pace of 22.2%.<br> <br>Brazil farmers have harvested 10.32% of the soybean area vs. 16.72% at this time last year, according to Patria Agronegocios. <br> <br>StoneX estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 170.9 mmt vs. 171.4 mmt previously. They project exports at 108.5 mmt vs. 107 mmt previously. Safrinha corn production is estimated at 101.7 mmt vs. 101.6 mmt previously. <br> <br>Strategie Grains analysts raised their EU 2025 rapeseed production forecast to 19.0 mln mt, up +300,000 mt over last month's outlook.<br> <br>Strategie Grains analysts raised their EU 2025 soybean production forecast to 3.2 mln mt, up +100,000 mt over last month's outlook.<br> <br>Strategie Grains analysts lowered their EU 2025 sunflower seed production forecast to 10.4 mln mt, off -100,000 mt from last month's outlook<br> <br>The COT report showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 1/28 had +39.0k corn (net long 350.7k), -18.9k srw (net short 110.7k), -7.2k hrw (net short 42.3k), +16.1k beans (net long 56.4k), +8.9k meal (net short 52.2k), and +15.5k oil (net long 39.7k).<br> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf up 2 to +62 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -35h<br>Mankato, MN up 5 to -50h<br>Decatur, IL steady -15h<br>Decatur, IN steady opt price h <br>Columbus, OH steady -20h </span></div></div>