Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Bean and Meal rallies relax in overnight trade.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">USDA Weekly Export Sales:<br> Est. (combined) Actual (old and new crop)<br>Corn .800-1.5 mmt .777<br>Wheat 250-550 tmt 141<br>Beans .500-1.2 mmt .485<br>Meal 200-400 tmt 204<br>Oil 5-35 tmt 38<br> <br>Overnight grain markets are easier led by beans and meal which are setting back and relaxing from their recovery highs. The recent strength in beans and meal has been supported by the need to add weather risk premium due to Argentina’s drying trend but favorable conditions in Brazil continue and are a key to limiting upside enthusiasm to a short term cleanup. The constructive technical action encouraged short covering, particularly from the record managed fund money short meal position, and was met with little resistance during the thin holiday timing. With the start of the new calendar year and a 1.5+ month in price on the board, soybean producers have stepped in and welcomed the opportunity extend soybean sales which is starting to slow the advance.<br> <br>Weekly export sales were below the lower end of the range of expectations for corn, wheat, and beans with meal scraping the bottom and oil coming in above the range. Keep in mind, it was a holiday week but aside from soybean oil, overall this was a poor week for export sales. <br> <br>Old crop soybean sales of 485 tmt--a marketing year low--were down 51% from the previous week and 67% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (618, including 316 from unknown), South Africa (100, including 100 from unknown and decreases of 6), Spain (80, including 66 from unknown), the Netherlands (77, including 71 from unknown), and Turkey (72, including 60 from unknown), were offset by reductions for unknown (667). Exports of 1.704 were up 8% from the previous week, but down 10% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (752), Egypt (219), Turkey (137), Spain (130), and Mexico (124). <br> <br>Old crop meal sales of 204 tmt were down 48% from the previous week and 26% from the prior 4-week average. Meal exports of 252 tmt were down 14% from the previous week and 27% from the prior 4-week average. <br> <br>Old crop soybean oil sales of 38 tmt were down 6% from the previous week, but up 18% from the prior 4-week average. Oil exports of 60 tmt--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. <br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>India vegoil trader group on Friday indicated edible vegoil imports in December dipped to their lowest level in three months, dropping -25% to 1.19 mln mt. December palm oil imports were off sharply dropping 40% to 503,000 mt, and sunflower oil imports plunged 22% to 265,000 mt, however soyoil imports were up slightly, gaining 3% on the month to 420,000 mt.</li><li>On Friday, the Indonesian energy and mines minister said he signed off on a decree allowing the sale of 15.6 million kiloliters of biodiesel in 2025, adding the government will soon move to 40% mandatory biodiesel blending soon. The minister further said they expect the blend mandate to rise to 50% next year, and 60% in 2026.</li><li>A deputy Indonesian energy minister Friday suggested there will be a 45 day transition period for companies to meet the B40 mandatory blending requirements. However, refiners say they're still waiting on the government to announce its technical regulations for the blending mandate.</li><li>UN's food agency world food price index for December fell to 127.0 from November's revised 127.6 figures. Most of the decline was attributed to falling sugar prices worldwide. The index in 2024 rose +6.7%, but was still 20% lower than the all time high level reached in March 2022.</li><li>Thursday's USDA Fats & Oils: November 2024 Soybean crush 6.301 mln tons; expected 6.18 mln tons</li><li>Thursday's USDA Fats & Oils: November 2024 Soybean meal stocks 463,019 tons</li><li>Thursday's USDA Fats & Oils: November 2024 ending Soy crude oil stocks 1.612 bln lbs; expected 1.420 bln lbs</li><li>Thursday's USDA November 2024 Extra Long Staple Cotton Stocks On Hand (bales): 369 bales ; prior month 554 bales</li><li>Thursday's USDA November 2024 Extra Long Staple Cotton Stocks On Hand (pounds): 174,000 lbs ; prior month 276,000 lbs.</li><li>Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Friday are trading -4.50 euros lower at 519.75 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian May soybean futures on Friday traded -10 yuan lower ending at 3,928 yuan/mt; May soymeal fell -17 yuan ending at 2,703 yuan/mt</li><li>On Friday, Dalian May vegoil futures fell sharply, soyoil lost -142 yuan ending at 7,670 yuan/mt, palm oil lost -166 yuan ending at 8,482 yuan/mt</li><li>On Friday, Malaysian March crude palm oil futures traded -41 ringgit lower ending at 4,374 ringgit/mt</li><li>On Friday, Malaysian March cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded +$10/mt higher ending at $1095.00/mt and $1,100.00/mt, respectively</li><li>CBOT Deliveries: January Soybean 331, Meal 333, Oil 237</li><li>Outside markets. Crude Oil -5c ; Gold +$2.90 ; Silver +32.5c ; US $ index -39 pts</li></ul>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf up 1 to +78 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -20h<br>Mankato, MN steady -35h<br>Decatur, IL steady -4h<br>Decatur, IN steady +8h <br>Columbus, OH steady -20h </div>