Soybean Morning Update & Commentary:
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Overnight grain markets were closed for the New Year celebration, Happy 2025! Opening calls are looking for a higher start to the day led by corn and wheat where strength in the European Matif trade offers guidance. New length continues to drive the gains in corn while firming global cash wheat prices have helped stabilize our wheat futures and encouraged some short covering. Strength in the dollar should be a limiting factor to our rallies but the friendly technical action, firm energy trade, and money flow will dominate the early action. Soybeans may lag following welcomed rainfall in Cordoba, Argentina however a warming and mostly dry near term forecast will remain supportive to beans, meal (and corn) while soybean oil remains tied up with uncertainty over government subsidies for biodiesel production. Malaysian palm oil settled 2.5% lower to a 2+ month low as Indonesia’s move to the planned B40 biodiesel blend rate awaits technical details of the new regulation, causing confusion among market participants.<br> <br>The USDA census crush report will be published this afternoon with a record November crush of 206 mb estimated on average, down from October’s 215.6 mb, but up from last November’s 200.6 mb effort. Oil stocks on average are estimated at 1.42 bln lbs, down from October’s stocks of 1.485 bln lbs and down from last November’s 1.599 bln lbs.<br> <br>Weekly export sales are delayed until tomorrow morning.<br> <br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>Ahead of this afternoon's monthly USDA soybean crush report, analysts are forecasting 6.18 mln mt of soybeans crushed in November 2024, if realized that would be off -4.5% from the October 6.47 mln. In the year ago November, the crush was 6.00 mln mt. Analysts are forecasting end of November soyoil stockpiles at 1.42 bln lbs, that compares with the end of October 1.485 bln lbs. End of November 2023 soyoil stocks were 1.599 bln lbs. The data will be released at 2:00 pm CT.</li><li>Indonesian palm oil traders are said to be in limbo after Indonesia's government failed to publish details for new regulations regarding higher 40% mandatory biodiesel blending that was to go into effect January 1, 2025.</li><li>Argentina oilseed crusher industry group on Thursday estimated the country's agriculture export sector brought in $1.97 billion in December 2024, that's up +58% over the year earlier month. They also noted full year revenues in 2024 rose +27% from 2023.</li><li>CME Group agricultural and interest rates markets will close at 12:15 p.m. CT on Thursday, January 9 in observance of former President Carter's funeral. All products trading on CME Globex will reopen at their regularly scheduled time on January 9 for a trade date of January 10.</li><li>Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Thursday are trading +1.00 euro higher at 512.25 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian May soybean futures on Thursday traded -1 yuan lower ending at 3,938 yuan/mt; May soymeal rose +24 yuan ending at 2,720 yuan/mt</li><li>On Thursday, Dalian May vegoil futures traded mixed, soyoil leapt +98 yuan ending at 7,812 yuan/mt, palm oil fell -28 yuan ending at 8,648 yuan/mt</li><li>Malaysian March crude palm oil futures on Thursday traded -112 ringgit lower ending at 4,336 ringgit/mt</li><li>Malaysian March cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Thursday traded -$20/mt lower ending at $1,085.00/mt and $1,090.00/mt, respectively</li><li>CBOT Deliveries: January Soybean 380, Meal 648, Oil 192</li></ul> <br><br> Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf steady +86 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -15f<br>Mankato, MN steady -35h<br>Decatur, IL steady -4h<br>Decatur, IN steady +8h <br>Columbus, OH steady -20f </div>