Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Quiet start to holiday shortened trading session. EU rapeseed has started the party early.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Overnight grain markets were quietly mixed with the soy complex and corn trading slightly higher while the wheat market was a touch lower. Fresh inputs are lacking and a low volume, choppy trade is expected ahead of the holiday. The grain markets will close early today at 12:05 pm cst. We are closed for Christmas and will re-open on Thursday morning at 8:30 am cst. Merry Christmas to all, have a safe and enjoyable holiday! <br> <br>Soybeans are up by 3-4 cents with the bull spread action mixed. Demand remains a supportive feature for beans but the US export window is closing seasonally, and the lack of forward guidance on biodiesel tax credits clouds the outlook on domestic crush which has been record large marketing year to date. Meanwhile, the calendar moves forward and Southern Hemisphere crops are being made. Brazil’s soybean production has record potential of +170 mmt+ while Argentina is dealing with some La Nina drying, but also maintains very strong potential. <br> <br>In the product trade, keep an eye on soybean oil because European rapeseed is trading 4.6% higher and challenging contract highs this morning. Heading into the break, the oil share spread is mixed with meal and oil both trading slightly higher. Board crush margins are a penny higher to $1.28/bushel. <br> <br>First notice on Jan futures is the 31<sup>st</sup>, there are 205 deliverable bean receipts registered with the exchange, along with 879 oil, and 1,665 meal. <br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>Cordonnier increased his Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1 mmt to 171 mmt with a neutral to higher bias while he left his corn forecast unchanged at 125 mmt with a neutral bia. His Argy crop estimates were unchanged at 55 mmt for beans and 49 mmt for corn with a neutral to lower bias toward both crops.</li><li>Indonesian palm oil association Tuesday reported October palm oil exports were 2.89 mln mt, up from September's 2.26 mln mt, but off from the 3.01 mln mt in the year earlier month.</li><li>Indonesian palm oil association Tuesday pegged October crude palm oil production at 4.42 mln mt, up 10% on the month.</li><li>End of October Indonesian palm oil stockpiles were 2.51 mln mt, according to the country's industry association, that's down from end of September 2.62 mln mt. Increased domestic consumption was said to have helped reduce October's stockpiles.</li><li>Weekly bean inspections were 64 mb up from 62 mb last week. Bean inspections total 995 mb which is 21% ahead of last year's pace of 819 mb. Weekly bean inspections need to average 23 mb to reach the USDA’s target of 1.825 bb.</li><li>Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Tuesday are trading +2.25 euros higher at 527.75 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian May soybean futures on Tuesday traded +16 yuan higher ending at 3,854 yuan/mt; May soymeal fell -6 yuan ending at 2,621 yuan/mt</li><li>On Tuesday, Dalian May vegoil futures traded higher, palm oil jumped +96 yuan ending at 8,790 yuan/mt, soyoil rose +56 yuan ending at 7,610 yuan/mt</li><li>Malaysian March crude palm oil futures on Tuesday traded +13 ringgit higher ending at 4,555 yuan/mt</li><li>On Tuesday, Malaysian March cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein traded unchanged at $1,120.00/mt and $1,125.00/mt, respectively</li><li>Outside markets. Crude Oil +70c ; Gold +$1.70 ; Silver -3.9c ; US $ index +14 pts</li></ul> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf steady +86 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -15f<br>Mankato, MN steady -20f <br>Decatur, IL steady +5f <br>Decatur, IN steady +10h <br>Columbus, OH steady -20h <br> </div>