Afternoon Corn: Small gains in a light volume holiday trading session
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Afternoon Corn: <br id=\"isPasted\"> <br>The corn market squeaked out a small gain to start the holiday week. And it is starting to feel a lot like Christmas; CH daily volume barely topped 100,000 contracts even when including spreads. Funds are heading into year’s end moderately long to the tune of around 165,000 delta-adjusted corn. Cash corn trade leaned easier.<br> <br>Export news remained a slightly positive input today. There was another 132,000 metric tons of U.S. corn booked to ‘unknown’ buyers at 8 AM, which would be the third daily corn flash sale announced in the past week. As we noted Friday, the USMCA dispute panel found in favor of the U.S. regarding Mexico’s restrictions on GMO corn imports. The positive resolution was broadly expected but does remove a lingering background worry surrounding U.S. corn’s #1 export customer. Mexico has implied they will comply with the ruling but move forward with a measure banning GMO planting in that country? <br> <br>The weekly grain inspections data found an active week of corn shipments. For the week ended 12/19, U.S. exporters shipped 1,122,861 metric tons of corn, little changed from an upwardly-revised 1.142 million metric tons (mmt) the prior week and compared to 1.227 mmt the year ago week. Destinations were comprised mostly of small lots to traditional customers. YTD corn inspections now stand 14.436 mmt versus 11.381 mmt shipped last year.<br> <br>Elsewhere, the U.S. Dollar recovered Friday’s dip, though the index finished slightly off session highs (made early in the morning). Stocks were mostly firmer, and Crude Oil managed to reverse early weakness (Santa rally coming to town???). End-user markets were mostly a little easier to start the week. Quarterly Hogs/Pigs data after the close found a few more animals around than expected (all hogs at 101% of year earlier vs. 100% expected), but farrowing intentions remained restrained (99-100% of year earlier). New highs in pigs/litter?? U.S. Congress passed a funding resolution over the weekend, which will keep gov’t reports flowing. Note this will be an abbreviated trading week; early noon close tomorrow (Tues) and closed Wednesday for Christmas. Weather forecasts tell a familiar tale; Argentina is expected to dry out the balance of this month, but there are rains in forecast 1-2 weeks out. Brazil conditions are expected to remain mostly in good shape throughout.<br> <br>In the options, volatility was steady/firm. 1,000 Jan $4.50 Calls traded early morning at 1 ½ cents; these expire Friday. Calendar spreads were a little firmer between crop years. Corn gained on the beans but finally lost to the wheat (pre-holiday short-covering?). Eyeing the charts, post-report trade confirmed meaningful resistance at $4.50 in March Corn, which we are once again approaching. Our support zone in the $4.35 neighborhood held last week’s break. Corn is not yet especially overbought with an RSI just over 60. The weekly chart is still in a positive mode; momentum indicators are pointed up, there is still an open gap higher, and a short-term uptrend remains in place.<br> <br>KJ </span></div></div>