Afternoon wheat: A firm start to a shortened week of trade
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>As expected, a very quiet news cycle as we start the Holiday week. This is a short week of trade. Full trading session today, but the grain markets close at 12:05 CDT on Tuesday and will remain closed until Thursday morning when the markets will reopen at 8:30 am CDT. Full trading sessions on both Thursday and Friday. Export sales will be released on Friday morning. Wishing everyone and their families a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!!!</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago March wheat futures quickly raced out to five-cent gains overnight, but then trade levelled out and ultimately weakened a little into the morning break, but still finished with slight gains. Buying returned once the day session started, with trade steadily climbing through the morning and peaking at eleven cents higher before retreating a bit into the close. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>March KC wheat futures quickly raced out to five-cent gains overnight, but here trade would extend gains a bit more as it neared the morning break, and trade did not weaken as much into the morning pause. About an hour into the day the market caught a bid, and futures steadily firmed to ten higher before stalling and setting back slightly into the close. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The March KC/Chicago spread saw mostly flat to slightly higher price action through the night, with trade firming into the morning pause. Shortly after the day session started the spread had a three-cent spike lower move, and the spread never got back higher again on the day. Trade made a run mid-morning, but the rally stalled at unchanged and trade set back a little into the close. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Wheat shipments last week were 403,719 mt (14.834 mil bu) vs last weeks adjusted 300,889 mt and 473,007 mt this time last year. Marketing year-to-date shipments (through Dec 19) stand at 11.943 MMT (438.832 mil bu) vs 9.388 MMT (369.568 mil bu) this time last year. The breakdown included 144,447 mt of HRS (5.307 mil bu), 51,283 mt of HRW (1.884 mil bu), 34,912 mt of SRW (1.283 mil bu) and 173,077 mt of White (6.359 mil bu). No Durum was shipped. </span></p><br><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>SovEcon lowered their 24/25 Russian wheat export forecast by 400 TMT down to 43.7 MMT, and in their first estimate for 25/26 exports, they project Russian wheat exports of 36.4 MMT. Keep in mind, just last week SovEcon lowered their Russian wheat production forecast for 2025 by 3 MMT to 78.7 MMT, making it the smallest crop since 2021 when production totaled 76 MMT. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Russian grain exporter group said their members are putting forth ideas to reduce grain settlement transaction costs on Egyptian wheat payments. The group said they expect Egypt's new grain import entity, Mostakbal Misr, to keep letters of credit from major Egyptian banks as part of the process to lower the costs. The group also said the country’s potential 2025 overall grain exports could reach 45.0 MMT, of which 40.0 MMT is wheat. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Bangladesh is in for milling wheat. They have several tenders still open. No purchase has been finalized and may take considerable time before purchases can be confirmed.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Dec 24 Algeria is in for seeking a nominal 50 TMT of milling wheat, but they usually tend to buy much more.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p></div>