Afternoon Soybeans: Beans and Meal squeezing the shorts.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><div style=\"line-height: 1;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">The soybean market followed through on yesterday’s upside reversal with another higher trade. January beans gained nearly 11.5 cents while the March futures added 12.75 and the nearby spread weakened for a second day after yesterday’s reversal. First notice on Jan futures is the 31<sup>st</sup>, Cargill cancelled 22 deliverable bean receipts overnight leaving 205 total open along with 879 oil, and 1,665 meal. The new crop bean to corn ratio widened out to 2.25%. Domestic bean basis was steady to lower with some processors rolling their bids out to March. <br> <br>The weather forecast for the Southern Hemisphere remains mostly favorable for crops with ample moisture across most of Brazil. The forecast today is warmer and drier for Argentina relative to yesterday, particularly for the second week of the outlook, and that could lead to eventual crop stress. Rain is expected to return by early next month but, the trend at the moment is one of drying down. Even in a ‘light’ La Nina year, Argentina will be the region to watch for potential drought issues. BAGE sees Argentine soybean planting progress at nearly 77% complete and corn nearly 66%.<br> <br>In the product trade, meal surged more than $11 higher as short bought end users scrambled to get covered and spec shorts hit the exit door which can feel very small on days like this. Interior meal basis was steady in both the truck and rail markets while CIF bids at the Gulf were soft as export demand eases up with US premiums widening out further above cheaper SAM supply. Bean oil was under pressure all day being on the other side of the oil share spreading. The oil share spread cratered to a 2.5 month low at 39.7% basis March. Board crush margins gained 6 cents to $1.25/bushel basis March.<br> <br>For the week, front month beans lost 13.75 cents (new crop lost 19), meal gained $10.4, and oil lost 2.80. <br> <br>Elsewhere in the news, one impact of a government shutdown is the timing of the January WASDE, Lance Honig at USDA’s NASS was asked about this by Pro Farmer and said: “For all of our end-of-season crop and Dec. stocks data, we are finished collecting the data, so the only issue would be with timing. In other words, we have all of the data we need to work with, just need time to analyze and compile it. So if there were a shutdown, it would just depend on how long it was in determining when the reports could be published (if any delay were necessary). So not a question of if we could publish, just maybe when.”<br> <br>Chinese customs data released Friday placed November soybean imports at 7.15 mln mt, bringing the Jan-Nov total soy imports to 97.09 mln mt. The November soy imports included 3.94 mln mt of Brazil soy, off -25% from the year ago month; US soy imports in November totaled 2.79 mln mt up from the 2.29 mln mt in Nov 2023. Jan-Nov soy imports from Brazil were 71.7 mln mt, up +10% on the year, while Jan-Nov US soy imports totaled 17.88 mln mt, off 9% from the year ago period.<br> <br>China’s Sinograin has bought nearly 500 tmt of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans. Last week they booked around 750 tmt for shipment from January to March. Sinograin is the state buyer for restocking reserves and they prefer U.S. beans because of the lower moisture that store better than the higher moisture Brazilian beans.<br> <br>Buenos Aire Grain Exchange reports Argy soybean planting advanced 11.5% on the week to 76.6% complete. The crop is rated 99% G/E and 1% P/VP, unchanged from a week ago. Corn planting advanced 10.2% on the wek to 65.8% complete. The crop is rated 98% G/E and 2% P/VP, unchanged from a week ago.<br> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf steady +91 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -15f<br>Mankato, MN off 5 to -20f <br>Decatur, IL steady +5f <br>Decatur, IN off 5 to +10h <br>Columbus, OH off 5 to -20f </span></div></div>