Morning Corn: March Corn looks to earn its carry
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, the corn market posted modest gains, finishing 2-3 cents higher by the morning pause. The weekly corn chart is tracking for 10+ cent gains, mostly because of Dec contract expiry last week. The March contract itself is hovering near unchanged for the week; so at least the market can say it is earning its carry so far? Corn’s performance over the past 24 hours has been quite impressive, shaking off much of the macro drama that has impacted financial markets. One supportive factor has been limited consumptive buying on the 10-15 cent pullback off the Dec WASDE highs. Colombia was back in at 8 AM with a 150,000 metric ton U.S. corn flash purchase, and Korean buyers have been picking away at small lots this week (optional origin). Beyond, weather worries remain relatively muted; Argentina turns a little more dry, but it is not expected to be accompanied by excessive heat, which should help preserve soil moisture to some extent. The main story of the day broadly will be the prospect of a U.S. gov’t shutdown. Funding runs out at midnight, so we would expect the CFTC report and Cattle on Feed both to be released on time tonight. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs may get delayed if the shutdown persists through the weekend? The annual crop report in Jan will be put together, but in theory could have timing shift if the shutdown is lasting? Jan serial grain options expire next week.<br> <br>Corn futures performed well Thursday, shaking off some macro headwinds and new contract lows in wheat. Corn finished the day with 2-3 cent gains; bull spreads were decently bid. Funds are believed net long around 160,000 delta-adjusted contracts with a CFTC update pending tonight. Cash had a mixed to easier tenor. The weekly export sales report arrived in good stead for corn, toward the high end of trade expectations. Net sales of 1,174,600 MT for 2024/2025 were up 24% from the previous week, but still down 10% from the prior 4-week average as we work off that long tail. Usual suspects Mexico, Japan, and Colombia, purchased the lion’s share, along with notable cameos from Taiwan and Spain. Corn sold/shipped for the year to date stand 36.3 million metric tons (mmt), up from 28.2 mmt last year. Milk futures reversed intraday weakness yesterday after the Nov production report found a nearly -1% yr/yr decline. The drop was particularly pronounced in California, suggesting bird flu may have been the culprit in reducing per cow productivity (herd size was higher yr/yr).<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>**USDA reported private sale of 150,000 mt of Corn to Colombia for the 24/25 MY<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Korea Feed Association on Friday passed on all offers in their 69,000 mt feed Corn tender today, prices were said to be too high, according to trade sources. The lowest offer in the tender was $237.49/mt cf.<br> <br>-- Korea Feed Association Incheon Friday was said to have purchased 67,000 mt of feed grade Corn in a privately negotiated deal. The price was said to be around $233.99/mt cf. The corn is for delivery by March 23rd.<br> <br>-- German stats bureau Friday estimated 2025 winter feed barley planted acres at 1.2 mln hectares, off -5.4% from the year ago crop.<br> <br>-- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Thursday noted Cordoba farmers have resumed planting for the 24/25 crop with better moisture conditions. Nationwide Argentina corn planting has reached 65.8% completion of the expected planted area.<br> <br>-- US EPA data released Thursday estimated the US generated 1.19 bln D6 Ethanol credits during November, that compares with the previous month's 1.27 bln credits<br> <br>-- US EPA data released Thursday estimated the US generated 732 mln D4 biodiesel credits during November, that compares with the previous month's 784 mln credits<br> <br>-- The European Commission Thursday slightly raised their 24/25 EU Corn production forecast to 59.5 mln mt from the prior month's outlook at 59.6 mln mt. EU 24/25 Corn imports were left unchanged at 19.5 mln mt<br> <br>-- The European Commission Thursday slightly lowered their 24/25 EU Barley production forecast to 49.4 mln mt from the prior month's outlook at 49.8 mln mt<br> <br><strong>[Table] Cattle On Feed Industry Estimates for December 20, 2024 report </strong>(expected release at 2 pm CT):<br> <br><table border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\"><tbody><tr><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><u>Average Estimate</u></td><td valign=\"top\"><u>Previous Report</u></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>On Feed December 1</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">100%</td><td valign=\"top\">100%</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>Placements during Nov</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">95%</td><td valign=\"top\">105%</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>Marketings in Nov</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">98%</td><td valign=\"top\">105%</td></tr></tbody></table> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>-- Pending Tender: Jordan's state grain buyer on Thursday (12/19) set December 24th as the offer deadline in a tender seeking up to 120,000 mt of feed grade Barley. The grain is for shipment from LH Feb to FH April<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris March corn futures on Friday are trading -0.50 euro lower at 205.00 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May corn futures on Friday traded -3 yuan lower ending at 2,177 yuan/mt<br><br>KJ</div>