Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Beans and Meal getting some relief after breaking down to new contract lows this week.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Overnight grain markets traded higher looking to extend their recoveries from the weakness that dominated throughout the start of the week. Soybeans are up by 6-8 cents with the bull spread action mixed. The Jan-March spread is a tick lower to start the day following yesterday’s key reversal out of a new high. Meanwhile, the old crop to new crop bean spreads are firmer. Beans are gaining on corn early on and the new crop ratio has recovered to 2.25% after dipping to 2.23% midweek. The flat price strength in beans is primarily driven by short covering after establishing a new contract low yesterday and reversing sharply higher. Soybean open interest from yesterday was -20k contracts as recent sellers stepped to the sidelines with the charts turning decisively in an overdue corrective trade. The US dollar is reversing out of a new multi-year high and the Brazilian real is building upon yesterday’s reversal after trading to a new all-time low – the currencies are taking some of the pressure off the soybean market but remain a negative influence on our export sensitive markets. <br> <br>The weather forecast for the Southern Hemisphere remains favorable for crops with ample moisture across most of Brazil. The forecast today is warmer and drier for Argentina relative to yesterday, particularly for the second week of the outlook, and that could lead to eventual crop stress. Rain is expected to return by early next month but, the trend at the moment is drying down. Even in a ‘light’ La Nina year, Argentina will be the region to watch for potential drought issues. BAGE sees Argentine soybean planting progress at 76.6% complete.<br> <br>In the product trade, meal is leading with a flat price recovery after establishing a fresh contract low yesterday and is gaining on bean oil in the oil share spreading. The oil share has slipped to a two-month low. Malaysian palm oil is leading the broader veg oil break and for the week, palm oil settled 7.7% lower. Board crush margins are steady at $1.02/bushel. <br> <br>On a potential government shutdown impact on January reports, Lance Honig at USDA’s NASS told Pro Farmer: “For all of our end-of-season crop and Dec. stocks data, we are finished collecting the data, so the only issue would be with timing. In other words, we have all of the data we need to work with, just need time to analyze and compile it. So if there were a shutdown, it would just depend on how long it was in determining when the reports could be published (if any delay were necessary). So not a question of if we could publish, just maybe when."<br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>Chinese customs data released Friday placed November soybean imports at 7.15 mln mt, bringing the Jan-Nov total soy imports to 97.09 mln mt. The November soy imports included 3.94 mln mt of Brazil soy, off -25% from the year ago month; US soy imports in November totaled 2.79 mln mt up from the 2.29 mln mt in Nov 2023. Jan-Nov soy imports from Brazil were 71.7 mln mt, up +10% on the year, while Jan-Nov US soy imports totaled 17.88 mln mt, off 9% from the year ago period.</li><li>China’s Sinograin has bought nearly 500 tmt of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, two U.S. traders familiar with the deals told Reuters. Sinograin’s purchases this week follow deals China booked last week for around 750 tmt for shipment from January to March. Sinograin prefers U.S. beans when it is buying for storage because they are less prone to spoilage than those from Brazil, traders said. </li><li>German stats bureau Friday estimated 2025 winter rapeseed planted acres at 1.11 mln hectares, up +2.3% over the year ago crop.</li><li>On Friday, Intertek estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports over the Dec 1-20 period at 900,004 mt off -8.3% from their Nov 1-20 estimate at 981,687 mt</li><li>AmSpec Agri on Friday estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports over the Dec 1-20 period at 889,992 mt that's below their Nov 1-20 estimate at 963,302 mt</li><li>Buenos Aire Grain Exchange reports Argy soybean planting advanced 11.5% on the week to 76.6% complete. The crop is rated 99% G/E and 1% P/VP, unchanged from a week ago. Corn planting advanced 10.2% on the wek to 65.8% complete. The crop is rated 98% G/E and 2% P/VP, unchanged from a week ago.</li><li>Brazil soybean production is forecast to reach 170.41 mmt, up 4 mmt from prior outlook, with total corn production seen at 129.27 mmt, up 1.7 mmt from prior outlook, according to Patria Agronegocios.</li><li>US EPA data released Thursday estimated the US generated 732 mln D4 biodiesel credits during November, that compares with the previous month's 784 mln credits</li><li>US EPA data released Thursday estimated the US generated 1.19 bln D6 Ethanol credits during November, that compares with the previous month's 1.27 bln credits</li><li>The European Commission Thursday slightly lowered their 24/25 EU Rapeseed production forecast to 16.9 mln mt from the prior month's outlook at 17.2 mln mt. EU 24/25 Rapeseed imports were left unchanged at 5.9 mln mt</li><li>The European Commission Thursday slightly lowered their 24/25 EU Sunflower production forecast to 8.0 mln mt from the prior month's outlook at 8.1 mln mt</li><li>Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Friday are trading -7.75 euros lower at 516.75 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian May soybean futures on Friday traded +41 yuan lower ending at 3,797 yuan/mt; May soymeal rose +35 yuan ending at 2,600 yuan/mt</li><li>On Friday, Dalian May soyoil traded unchanged on Friday ending at 7,496 yuan/mt, palm oil dropped -98 yuan ending at 8,762 yuan/mt</li><li>Malaysian March cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Friday traded -74 ringgit lower ending at 4,434 ringgit/mt</li><li>Malaysian Feb/Mar cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Friday traded -$5/mt lower ending at $1,115.00/mt and $1,120.00/mt, respectively</li><li>Outside markets. Crude Oil -68c ; Gold +$9.90 ; Silver -14.6c ; US $ index -28 pts</li></ul> <br>Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf steady +91 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -15f<br>Mankato, MN steady -15f <br>Decatur, IL steady +5f <br>Decatur, IN steady +10f <br>Columbus, OH steady -15f </div>