Corn Morning Update & Commentary: Lots to unpack today; export sales were good
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn Morning Update & Commentary:<br id=\"isPasted\"><br>Overnight, corn futures were mostly a little easier, finishing steady to fractionally lower by the morning pause. It will be an interesting day in the outside markets in particular after a rather sharp reaction to a broadly expected ‘hawkish’ Fed rate cut yesterday? The US Dollar is starting the day at a two year high, while Crude Oil and stocks try to fight it off with modest ups early. The weekly export sales report arrived in fairly good stead for corn, toward the high end of trade expectations. Net sales of 1,174,600 MT for 2024/2025 were up 24% from the previous week, but down 10% from the prior 4-week average as we work off that long tail. Usual suspects Mexico, Japan, and Colombia, purchased the lion’s share, along with interesting cameos from Taiwan and Spain. Corn sold/shipped for the year to date stand 36.3 million metric tons (mmt), up from 28.2 mmt last year. There was a little more export news beyond the report; South Korea was busy, with NOFI buying two cargos and MFG one, all optional origin. There were no 8 AM sales today, and milk traders will be watching a milk production report due after the close. How a deeply oversold soybean market reacts today could end up driving the corn bus?<br> <br>The corn market succumbed to bearish related market pressures Wed, settling six cents lower across most actively traded months. Funds may have lightened their length a little, but we’d still guess they are net long around 155,000 delta-adjusted contracts. Cash corn trade was mixed. The report-du-jour was the weekly EIA. It held mixed feature for ethanol; production jumped +2.5%; the resulting 1.103 mil bbl/day rate would utilize 5.80 billion bushels of corn, which is still well above current USDA grind estimates. Blender demand was firm as expected, rising +2% wk/wk, and exports remained robust, pegged at 163k bbl/day vs. 123k last week. Ethanol stocks were little changed as the larger disappearance offset the production hike. Ethanol futures held up better than corn of the day, though we still think an average Midwest plant is losing a little money, net of all costs. As expected, the FOMC cut U.S. benchmark interest rates a quarter-percent. There was one dissenter? They raised their inflation and interest rates projection slightly for next year, which appeared to displease those expecting significant interest rate reductions in the near future? Also not helping was uncertainty surrounding the government spending bill, which looks like it may need to be re-written to appease Mr. Trump (potentially putting the E-15 rider in jeopardy??).<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>**USDA Corn 24/25 Export Sales Net (12/12): 1,174,600 mt; 25/26 Net: 2,500 mt; expected 800k-1.7 mln<br> <br>**USDA Sorghum (Total) 24/25 Export Sales Net (12/12): -59,200 mt; 25/26 Net: NONE mt<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Grain traders Thursday reported 136,000 mt of feed Corn was bought by South Korea's Nonghyup Feed, half the volume was reportedly priced at $234.19/mt cf for March 15th delivery, the other half was priced at $234.90/mt cf for March 25th arrival.<br> <br>-- In a privately negotiated deal Thursday, trade sources reported, Major Feedmill Group of South Korea bought around 67,000 mt of feed grade Corn. They reportedly paid $246.99/mt cf, delivery is expected around April 5th.<br> <br>-- Analysts with Strategie Grains Thursday projected 2025/26 EU Corn production at 59.6 mln mt, that compares with the 24/25 crop estimate at 57.9 mln mt.<br> <br>-- Analysts with Strategie Grains Thursday projected 2025/26 EU Barley production at 50.6 mln mt, that compares with the 24/25 crop estimate at 50.3 mln mt.<br> <br>-- Online media outlet, Politico, Wednesday afternoon suggested the US House Speaker is discussing dropping the current spending plan in order to pass a "clean" stopgap bill.<br> <br>-- An official with the USDA on Wednesday said they are not seeing US dairy herds, that have previously cleared the bird flu virus, being re-infected<br> <br>-- The US CDC said the individual involved in Louisiana's human bird flu case is the first severe case in the United States, in the 60 some previous human cases symptoms were described as mild. While the CDC didn't detail the individual's symptoms, they noted they had been in contact with sick and dead birds in their backyard flock.<br> <br>-- The human case of bird flu found recently in Louisiana is the first associated with non-commercial backyard poultry flock, according to US CDC officials. The CDC again today reiterated the US general population has low risk to bird flu.<br> <br><strong>[Table] Cattle On Feed Industry Estimates for December 20, 2024 report</strong><br>(expected release at 2 pm CT)<br> <br><table border=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\"><tbody><tr><td valign=\"top\"><br></td><td valign=\"top\"><u>Average Estimate</u></td><td valign=\"top\"><u>Previous Report</u></td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>On Feed December 1</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">100%</td><td valign=\"top\">100%</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>Placements during Nov</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">95%</td><td valign=\"top\">105%</td></tr><tr><td valign=\"top\"><strong>Marketings in Nov</strong></td><td valign=\"top\">98%</td><td valign=\"top\">105%</td></tr></tbody></table> <br> <br> <br> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>NA<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris March corn futures on Friday are trading -1.25 euro lower at 208.00 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May corn futures on Thursday traded +5 yuan higher ending at 2,180 yuan/mt<br><br>KJ</div>