Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Bean complex looks to come up for some air.
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">USDA Weekly Export Sales:<br> Est. (combined) Actual (old and new crop)<br>Corn .800-1.7 mmt 1.175 and .003<br>Wheat 250-600 tmt 458<br>Beans .850-2.0 mmt 1.424<br>Meal 262 tmt 200-400<br>Oil 5-70 tmt 6<br> <br>Overnight grain markets traded weaker including fresh contract lows for wheat, beans, and meal although the bean complex has reversed higher heading into the break while wheat remained lower and the corn market was mixed. Soybeans are trading 4-5 cents higher after establishing fresh contract lows across the curve overnight. <br> <br>The weather forecast for the Southern Hemisphere remains favorable for crops with ample moisture across most of Brazil. There will be some near term drying stretching across portions of S Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay which could lead to eventual crop stress. However, rains are expected to return later in the month and at this stage, the level of concern for crops in these areas is on the low end of the scale. <br> <br>Weekly export sales were all within their respective ranges of expectations. In the daily reporting system, the USDA flashed 152 tmt of old crop and 75 tmt of new crop beans were sold to unknown.<br> <br>Old crop bean sales of 1.424 mmt were up 21% from the previous week, but down 27% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (648, including 464 from unknown and decreases of 67), unknown destinations (375), Pakistan (65), Turkey (64), and Egypt (56), were offset by reductions for Libya (27), Vietnam (9), Italy (5). Exports of 1.686 mmt were down 9% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (1.042), Mexico (177), Bangladesh (109), Egypt (63), and Vietnam (59).<br> <br> <br>In the product trade, soybean oil is off to a firmer start following a three day flush to start the week. Meal is a shade higher on the other side of the oil share spreading. Old crop meal sales of 262 tmt were up 48% from the previous week, but down 14% from the prior 4-week average. Old crop bean oil sales of 6 tmt were down 91% from the previous week and 90% from the prior 4-week average. Board crush margins are 3 higher to $1.02/bushel.<br> <br>In the news:<br><ul class=\"decimal_type\"><li>A consortium of South Korea feed importers on Thursday reportedly paid between $355.85/mt to $355.95/mt cf for 180,000 mt of optional origin Soymeal. The meal is for delivery in late June, early July.</li><li>Indonesia's economic minister Thursday said the government will raise their crude palm oil export levy to 10% from the current 7.5%, the move is a means to finance it's planned higher biodiesel subsidies. The new biodiesel blend rate of 40% starts January 1st.</li><li>Brazil soybean production is forecast to reach 170.41 mmt, up 4 mmt from prior outlook, with total corn production seen at 129.27 mmt according to Patria Agronegocios. </li><li>US Climate Prediction Center Thursday said they're currently on La Nina watch, conditions are likely to emerge from now until January with a 59% chance, then persist through the February-April period. They forecast ENSO neutral conditions are to re emerge over the March - May 2025 period.</li><li>Online media outlet, Politico, Wednesday afternoon suggested the US House Speaker is discussing dropping the current spending plan in order to pass a "clean" stopgap bill.</li><li>Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Friday are trading +3.25 euros higher at 524.00 euros/mt</li><li>Dalian May soybean futures on Thursday traded -36 yuan lower ending at 3,756 yuan/mt; May soymeal fell -20 yuan ending at 2,565 yuan/mt</li><li>On Thursday, Dalian May vegoil futures traded sharply lower, soyoil fell -210 yuan at 7,496 yuan/mt, palm oil droped -224 yuan ending at 8,860 yuan/mt</li><li>Malaysian March crude palm oil futures on Thursday traded -57 ringgit lower ending at 4,473 ringgit/mt</li><li>Malaysian Feb/Mar cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Thursday traded -$7.50/mt lower ending at $1,120.00/mt and $1,125.00/mt, respectively</li><li>Outside markets. Crude Oil -16c ; Gold -$23.20 ; Silver -80.5c ; US $ index -5 pts</li></ul> Soybean Basis: <br>Location Spot <br>US Gulf steady +91 <br>Cedar Rapids, IA steady -15f<br>Mankato, MN steady -15f <br>Decatur, IL steady +5f <br>Decatur, IN steady +10f <br>Columbus, OH steady -15f </div>