AgCenter Cattle Market Report & Analysis

<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; color: var(--wp--preset--color--vivid-cyan-blue) !important; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; font-weight: bold;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">December 19, 202</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">4</span></p><figure style=\"margin: 1em 40px; box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; display: block; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><img width=\"474\" height=\"355\" src=\"https://download.qtmarketcenter.com/jay/1734616071978.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://cattlereport.agcenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Holiday-prime-rib.jpg 474w, https://cattlereport.agcenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Holiday-prime-rib-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 474px) 100vw, 474px\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; max-height: 1e+06px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; border: 0px;\" class=\"fr-fic fr-dii fr-fil\" success=\"true\" filename=\"1734616071978.png\"></span></figure><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; color: var(--wp--preset--color--vivid-cyan-blue) !important; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; font-weight: bold;\">THE MARKETS</strong></span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Chairman Powell announced yesterday a .25 point drop in the fed funds rate &mdash; a move widely anticipated and predicted as 80% likely in the markets. His announcement was accompanied by some bad news signaling a pause in the plan to continue to lower rates next year. The market had built into prices for next year &mdash; four quarter point drops, and the futures markets quickly adjusted to two drops next year sending the stock market sharply lower. Some traders had been betting on this action and this was the 10th decline in as many trading days for stocks. The Chairman said the Federal Reserve Board would base future decisions on new information about the economy as it becomes available.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Commodity traders have also been active betting bad news from the Fed Chairman would weigh on commodity prices. The cattle futures have been pressured lower while cash prices are seeing fundamental strength. Apart from a few isolated trades at steady to firm prices, packers have been largely unsuccessful purchasing cattle this week at steady prices with last week. The cattle owners in the south will attempt to gain parity with the north this week, but northern cattle owners have passed $195 bids and are asking higher. Show lists in all regions were sharply lower but packers will be buying for a holiday shortened Christmas week.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Processors slaughtered 609,000 cattle this past week down 5,000 from the previous week. This week&rsquo;s slaughter was 38,000 under last year. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in decline.</span></p><h2 style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; color: var(--wp--preset--color--vivid-cyan-blue) !important; font-size: 27px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Pre-release guesses for COF December 1</span></h2><pre style=\"box-sizing: border-box; max-height: 1e+06px; overflow: auto; font-family: monospace, monospace; font-size: 19px;  color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">CATTLE ON FEED.......December.....99.9....99.4-100.3</span></pre><pre style=\"box-sizing: border-box; max-height: 1e+06px; overflow: auto; font-family: monospace, monospace; font-size: 19px;  color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">PLACED DURING........November.....95.9....92.6-98.9</span></pre><pre style=\"box-sizing: border-box; max-height: 1e+06px; overflow: auto; font-family: monospace, monospace; font-size: 19px;  color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">MARKETED DURING......November.....98.2....97.7-98.7</span></pre><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/livestock/live-cattle.quotes.html\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">CATTLE FUTURES</a>. Futures prices continued lower. Some traders are speculating on the possibility a new administration might initiate ICE raids on the beef plants, but insiders view this as unlikely.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">B<a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3492.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">enchmarking</a>. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">The <a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2700.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report</a> offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week&rsquo;s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 917# up 3# from prior week and 11# heavier than last year. Carcass weights will be fundamental in determining total beef production. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was .3% lower at 81.80%. This was 3% over last year.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls196.txt\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report&nbsp;</a>is indicative of regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences is live price. The report is also reflective of the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2480.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Forward Cattle Contracts</a>: &nbsp;Forward contracts will always bear some relationship to the corresponding futures month closest to the delivery month for the cattle. Basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer&rsquo;s plate in return for an extra margin.&nbsp;</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Formula and Negotiated Grids. <a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3492.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">The Price and Distribution Report&nbsp;</a>delineates the various selling methods and net results. The <a href=\"https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/Cattle_Contract_Library\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Cattle Contracts Report</a> details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.</span></p><div style=\"margin-bottom: 1.75em; gap: 2em; box-sizing: border-box; max-height: 1e+06px; display: flex; align-items: center; flex-wrap: nowrap; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><div style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; flex-grow: 0; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; margin: 0px; flex-basis: 50%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><iframe src=\"https://embeds.agcenter.com/cattlereportchart/choice_cutout\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 75vh; width: 551px; min-height: 55px; height: 55px; border: none;\"><span class=\"fr-mk\" style=\"display: none;\">&nbsp;</span></iframe></span></div><div style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; flex-grow: 0; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; margin: 0px; flex-basis: 50%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><iframe src=\"https://embeds.agcenter.com/cattlereportchart/select_cutout\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 75vh; width: 551px; min-height: 55px; height: 55px; border: none;\"><span class=\"fr-mk\" style=\"display: none;\">&nbsp;</span></iframe></span></div></div><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswbfrtl.pdf\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(23, 79, 134); text-decoration: underline; font-weight: 400;\">Beef Feature Activity Index.</a></span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: inherit; max-heigh