India to surpass China as the top source of global oil consumption growth in 2024 and 2025
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><span id=\"isPasted\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; text-transform: uppercase; color: rgb(89, 89, 89); display: block; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\">December 19, 2024</span><p data-type=\"inbrief\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 1em; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Jost, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><img src=\"https://download.qtmarketcenter.com/jay/1734614143717.png\" alt=\"annual change in world liquid fuels consumption\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; width: 914.034px;\" class=\"fr-fic fr-dii fr-fil\" success=\"true\" filename=\"1734614143717.png\"></span></p><div style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.5em 0em; padding: 0px; font-style: normal; font-size: 0.875rem; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Jost, sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><strong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">Data source: </strong>U.S. Energy Information Administration, <a href=\"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 126, 181); text-decoration: none;\"><em style=\"box-sizing: border-box; font-style: italic;\">Short-Term Energy Outlook</em></a>, December 2024</span></div><hr style=\"box-sizing: border-box; border-top: 1px dashed rgb(212, 212, 212); border-right: none; border-bottom: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; margin: 1.5em 0em !important; background: none; clear: both; color: rgb(212, 212, 212); float: none; height: 1px; overflow: visible; width: 914.034px; font-family: Jost, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><p style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 1em; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Jost, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025, overtaking China this year, according to our December <a href=\"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 126, 181); text-decoration: none;\"><em style=\"box-sizing: border-box; font-style: italic;\">Short-Term Energy Outlook</em></a> (STEO). China’s oil consumption grew by more than India’s in almost every year from 1998 through 2023, with China’s oil consumption regularly growing more than any other country during those years.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 1em; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Jost, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally. We expect an increase of 0.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024. We expect even more growth next year, with global oil consumption increasing by 1.3 million b/d.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 1em; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Jost, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Driven by rising demand for transportation fuels and fuels for home cooking, consumption of liquid fuels in India is forecast to increase by 220,000 b/d in 2024 and by 330,000 b/d in 2025. That growth is the most of any country in our forecast in each of the years.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 1em; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Jost, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">We forecast China’s liquid fuels consumption will grow by 90,000 b/d in 2024 before increasing by 250,000 b/d in 2025. In China, rapidly expanding electric vehicle ownership, rising use of liquefied natural gas for trucking goods, a declining population, and decelerating economic growth have <a href=\"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63764\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 126, 181); text-decoration: none;\">limited consumption growth for transportation fuels</a>. Most of the growth in China is the result of increasing oil use for manufacturing petrochemicals.</span></p><p style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 1em; line-height: 1.6; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Jost, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">Although India’s growth in percentage and volume terms exceeds China’s growth in our forecast, China still consumes significantly more oil. Total consumption of liquid fuels in India was 5.3 million b/d in 2023, while China consumed more than triple that amount at 16.4 million b/d in 2023, based on estimates in our December STEO.</span></p></div>