Corn and Soybean Morning Update & Commentary: Bean complex sees follow-through weakness overnight
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\">Corn and Soybean Morning Update & Commentary:<br><br id=\"isPasted\">Overnight, the corn market was quiet; the same could not be said for soybeans, which extended weakness after a soft Tuesday. By the morning pause, soybeans were 13-15 cents lower, oil dropped another penny a pound, and meal was off $3. The bean weakness is likely a combination of technicals and disappointment over the apparent exclusion of biodiesel goodies in Congress’s stopgap spending bill. Corn/ethanol picked up a win via a codified year-round approval for E-15 fuel, though we will caution bulls this is not a mandate and there is plenty of E-15 blending already occurring. Still, it does not hurt and should remove some built-in disincentive to building out the capacity to accommodate E-15 in areas that do not currently use much of it? Speaking of which, the report of the day is the weekly EIA. We think ethanol production will pick up a little more steam, likely rising about +1-2% wk/wk. Blender demand should also prove a little better, while exports hold steady at recent elevated norms. We think the uptick in production will flow directly into an ethanol stocks build of around +1-2%. We think an average Midwest ethanol plant is losing a little money today (net of all costs). Today is also “Fed Day”; the FOMC is expected to cut U.S. benchmark interest rates a quarter point, though some expect it to be a ‘hawkish cut’ where they reign in expectations of future cuts. There were a couple of 8 AM flash sales; 135k corn and 120k soy meal, both to Colombia. China says it will stop auctioning imported corn to support domestic corn prices, which are near 4 ½ year lows?<br> <br>Turnaround Tuesday for corn, as a slightly better night session gave way to a slightly lower day session, settling the day 1-2 cents lower. The soybean complex meanwhile did not even attempt to disguise itself, highlighted by fresh contract lows in beans (down 5 cents Jan, 7 March) and a sharp decline in the oilshare (meal steady, oil down over a penny/lb). Funds are believed long corn, near flat soy oil, and modestly short beans and meal. Cash corn trade was steady after digesting a recent slide amid a wave of farm selling. One wouldn’t be able to tell it from looking at the board, but there were positive demand headlines around Tuesday, particularly in soybeans. US bean export sales remain active but are expected to tail off once buyers have bridged their coverage gap to Brazilian new crop availability. Brazil’s harvest will ramp up in February with less than usual early availability in January due to the lack of early planting in September. End-user markets were quietly mixed, as they are bracing for a plethora of data due to come out later this week (and early next): milk production is due Thursday, Cattle on Feed is out Friday, and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs will be released Monday.<br> <br> <br>QT News - Top News<br> <br>**USDA reported private sale of 135,000 mt of Corn to Colombia for the 24/25 MY<br> <br>**USDA reported private sale of 120,000 mt of Soybean Meal to Colombia for the 24/25 MY<br> <br>-- On Wednesday, Japan's Ag Ministry reported they did not purchase any feed grade Barley at their SBS tender that closed earlier today. They had been seeking up to 25,000 mt.<br> <br>-- Sinograin on Wednesday announced plans to stop selling imported Corn from it's stockpiles starting today, the move is seen as a means to help prop up domestic corn prices, which are at four and a half year lows.<br> <br>-- Chinese state media reporting from an annual rural policy meeting said the government will work to further modernize agriculture in a bid to ensure stable, high output of grains to ensure national food security.<br> <br>-- On Wednesday, France AgriMer projected 24/25 Corn ending stockpiles at 2.68 mln mt that compares with last month's projection at 2.36 mln mt.<br> <br>-- On Wednesday, France AgriMer projected 24/25 Barley ending stockpiles at 1.38 mln mt that compares with last month's projection at 1.36 mln mt.<br> <br>-- GOP lawmakers say a tentative deal has been reached for stopgap funding for the Federal government, aides are said to be prepping the bill for a vote to be scheduled for later this week, ahead of the Saturday deadline that would lead to partial government shutdown. The bill is said to include $100 billion additional disaster aid, and US House Speaker Johnson Tuesday morning said $10 billion is earmarked for economic aid to US farmers. The stopgap reportedly would fund through the middle of March 2025.<br> <br>-- Media reports say the stopgap funding bill would allow higher ethanol - gasoline mix year round. If the provision makes it into the final bill it would mark a victory for the US ethanol industry.<br> <br>Pending Tenders<br> <br>-- Pending Tender: On Thursday (12/12), Jordan announced December 18th as the offer deadline in a tender seeking up to 120,000 mt of feed Barley. The grain is expected for shipment between Feb 15 to Apr 15.<br> <br> <br> <br>-- Euronext Paris March corn futures on Wednesday are trading unchanged at 207.75 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Euronext Paris February rapeseed futures on Wednesday are trading -10.00 euros lower at 527.50 euros/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May soybean futures on Wednesday traded -13 yuan lower ending at 3,792 yuan/mt; May soymeal fell -40 yuan ending at 2,585 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- Dalian May corn futures on Wednesday traded -18 yuan lower ending at 2,175 yuan/mt.<br> <br>-- On Wednesday, Dalian May vegoil futures traded sharply lower, palm oil fell -122 yuan ending at 9,084 yuan/mt, soyoil lost -180 yuan ending at 7,706 yuan/mt<br> <br>-- On Wednesday, Malaysian March crude palm oil futures fell -195 ringgit finishing at 4,530 ringgit/mt<br> <br>-- Malaysian Feb/Mar cash offers for RBD palm oil and olein on Wednesday traded -$30/mt lower ending at $1,127.50/mt and $1,132.50/mt, respectively<br><br>KJ</div>