Afternoon wheat: Markets bounce back from a defensive overnight session
<div class=\"default-font-wrapper\" style=\"line-height: 1;font-size: 12pt; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif;\"><p id=\"isPasted\" style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Futures:</span></u></em></strong></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The wheat complex was under modest pressure throughout the night, possibly following recent rains that moved through HRW country and an upcoming forecast that calls for above normal precip. Trade also may have received some support following initial 2025 production projections from both IKAR and SovEcon, with both groups suggesting we may see a third consecutive yearly decline in Russian wheat production. Also aiding in the wheat market’s recovery was the strength in both corn and soy, though the European markets still posted slight losses in both corn and wheat? </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Chicago Dec wheat futures were under mild pressure throughout the night, with trade slipping to more than six cents lower and remaining on the defensive until the morning pause. However, once the day session started the market caught a bid, rallied to more than six cents higher, and then maintained much of those gains through the close before finishing a couple cents off its highs. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Dec KC wheat traded similarly to Chicago in that overnight trade was mostly lower, with futures slipping to a nickel lower, but once the day session started the market rallied, with futures topping out at more than seven cents higher. Trade weakened a little late in the day, but the market still posted modest gains. </span><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The Dec KC/Chicago spread saw slightly higher overnight price action, turned two-sided at the start of the day, and then tried to firm again mid-morning, but the rally was unable to carry very far. The spread set back a little into the close, but still managed to post marginal gains. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Headline news:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>IKAR analysts released their first projection for 2025 Russian wheat production and pegged output at between 80 and 85 MMT. Meanwhile, SovEcon analysts also released their first 2025 Russian wheat production estimate and pegged output at 80.1 MMT. The 2024 Russian wheat harvest is expected at around 83.0 MMT. The USDA is similar, at 82 MMT. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>EU data shows that as of Oct 20, cumulative year-to-date EU soft wheat exports (marketing year started July 1) are 7.02 MMT. Meaning, EU wheat exports last week were 380 TMT. This time last year, total EU wheat exports were 10.22 MMT. Some countries (mainly France, Bulgaria and Ireland) continue to be slow in reporting and updating data (applies to all markets).</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Ukraine Ag Ministry said that as of Oct 21, there has been 3.85 mil hectares of winter wheat planted, which is almost 86% of the projected 4.5 mil hectares expected to be planted. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>The president of a French farmers' union on Tuesday announced they will hold mid-November nationwide protests. They are upset at possible terms under a Mercosur - EU trade pact. Union members believe the deal will lead to unfair competition.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;\'><strong><em><u><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;color:red;\'>Export business around this week:</span></u></em></strong><span style=\"color:black;\"> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Tunisia bought 125 TMT of soft milling wheat in their tender that closed today. They reportedly paid $262.88/mt C&F for 50 TMT, $263.34/mt C&F for 25 TMT and $264.00/mt C&F for the final 50 TMT. In their prior tender a month ago, Tunisia paid $245.83/mt C&F for 125 TMT. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Jordan passed on all eight offers in their 120 TMT milling wheat tender, not making a purchase. </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'>Bangladesh is in for 50 TMT of milling wheat. The lowest offer is thought to be $301.88/mt liner out, with other offers ranging from $303.20/mt up to $306.75/mt C&F.</span></p><p style=\'margin:0in;font-size:12pt;font-family:\"Times New Roman\",serif;text-align:justify;\'><span style=\'font-family:\"Arial\",sans-serif;\'> </span></p></div>